Research On Risk Control Of Bond Investment Of Small And Medium-sized Commercial Banks In China

In recent years,China's financial market has developed rapidly.As an important component of the financial market,the bond market has become increasingly mature.Among them,the status of the inter-bank bond market has become increasingly prominent,and commercial banks,as important investors,there is a very close relationship between the two.In the business system of commercial banks,investing bonds in the inter-bank bond market is a very important business.However,due to the undeveloped development of China's bond market,in addition,commercial banks(especially small and medium-sized commercial banks)have extensive internal management of bond investment business,and in terms of the degree of attention,commercial banks have not attracted enough attention Therefore,commercial banks still face great risks in the bond investment business.Before,the commercial banks mainly took the deposit-loan balance as the traditional profit pattern,but as the interest rate marketization quickens,the commercial banks must change this pattern The gradual awakening of residents' financial management awareness has triggered a large-scale "savings move",commercial banks are facing a more severe form of competition.In recent years,China's bond market environment is relatively good,and the advantages of bond investment business are gradually manifesting.As a relatively good choice,bond investment is more and more welcomed by China's Commercial Banks The bond business is beginning a new revenue-generating model.For China's small and medium-sized commercial banks,compared with large commercial banks,small and medium-sized commercial banks have many limitations and need to pay more attention to risk management At this point,if we can innovate in the bond investment and control the risk,change in the big capital management industry reshuffle pattern,then we can stand out in the fierce banking competition and become the leader.This paper is divided into five parts.The first part introduces the background and significance of this paper.Through reading the literature at home and abroad,I get some opinions.The second part summarizes the status quo of small and medium-sized banks' bond investment business,analyzes the characteristics,practices and risks of small and medium-sized banks' bond investment business.The third part studies the influence of some important macroeconomic factors on the bond investment income from the qualitative and quantitative aspects,in which the principal component analysisis used to screen the variables and further analysis,and some important conclusions are drawn.The fourth part uses the GARCH model to calculate the Dynamic Var,which makes the risk measurement of the small and medium-sized commercial banks more accurate,in order to facilitate the development of the bond investment business and better avoid the risk.The fifth part puts forward some countermeasures to accelerate the development of bond investment business,in order to promote the further development of small and medium-sized commercial banks bond investment business.This paper uses three common research methods,mainly on the basis of sorting out the theory of bond investment,first of all,it establishes a macro-economic model that affects the bond investment income On the one hand,it can enrich the macroeconomic theory of bond investment returns.On the other hand,it provides an economic analysis framework for small and medium-sized banks when they conduct bond investment business Then the Garch model is established and the improved Var is applied to the risk measurement of the bond investment,which provides a more optimized method for the bond investment risk management of the small and medium-sized banks.In the innovation aspect of the paper,in the demonstration,when establishing the macroeconomic model,in the dependent variable choice,take the bond maturity as the division basis,not limited to one kind of bond,thus enhances the credibility of the research result,has expanded the application scope of the model.In the subsequent risk measurement model,the GARCH model is used to calculate Var,which is more advantageous than other methods.It provides a way of thinking for small and medium-sized banks to make Bond Investment It can accurately fit and measure the bond investment risk of small and medium-sized commercial banks.