| The Yangtze River is the most navigable river in the world.It is an important transportation link between inland hinterland and coastal areas in Western China.It is an important strategic decision made by the CPC Central Committee and the State Council to promote the development of the Yangtze River economic belt relying on the Yangtze River Golden Waterway.Therefore,it is very necessary to study and analyze the adaptability between the shipping logistics of the Yangtze River and the industries in the upper reaches and put forward the development strategy.Based on the systematic analysis of the reasonable distribution of industries and the current situation of shipping logistics along the Yangtze River,this paper studies the adaptability of industrial distribution and shipping logistics.1.Through the analysis of the industrial situation in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River,it is found that the proportion of the secondary and tertiary industries in the three provinces and one city keeps rising;the industrialization level of the three provinces and one city is in the middle or transitional stage;the export-oriented economic development is rapid,the foreign trade structure is gradually optimized;the industrial development is convergent,and the complementarity is not strong.2.Based on the analysis of the current situation of the integrated logistics system in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River,the coupling degree analysis model of the integrated transportation system and logistics development in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River is established.According to the analysis,in recent years,the coupling and coordinated development degree of comprehensive transportation system and logistics system in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River is increasing year by year,and the integrated transportation system and logistics development are gradually matched,and the overall development trend is coordinated.3.Through the analysis of regional industry and logistics,the industrial planning and logistics volume forecast of the upper reaches of the Yangtze River are carried out.It is estimated that the logistics volume will reach 6.32 billion tons by 2020,the growth rate of the logistics volume of three provinces and one city will slow to 4%from 2020 to 2030,and the logistics volume will reach 9.36 billion tons by 2030.Among them,in 2020,the freight demand of the Three Gorges is about 200 million tons,and in 2030,the freight demand of the Three Gorges is about 300 million tons.4.In view of the above research results,the analytic hierarchy process(AHP)and data envelopment analysis(DEA)models of industrial layout and shipping logistics adaptability in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River are established,and the infrastructure,channel support capacity,lock-passing capacity,port throughput capacity,shipping capacity and shipping service of the three provinces and one city in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River are also analyzed.The adaptability of service capability is discussed in detail.5.In view of the research results,the paper puts forward some suggestions to ensure the industrial layout and shipping logistics development in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River. |
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