Research On Risk Assessment Of PPP Project Based On SEM

As the PPP model is successfully implemented in various countries,it is increasingly mature.Since the PPP model can solve the problem of poor quality and efficiency of public service supply and high local debt,the PPP model has been widely promoted and applied in China since 2014.Through the implementation of the PPP model,local governments have improved the supply of public goods.On the other hand,through the cooperation between the government and social capital,the efficiency of administrative management has been effectively promoted to promote quality change and efficiency change.However,in the practice of PPP mode in recent years,there have been many problems such as PPP generalization,pseudo PPP and real stock bonds,which have brought certain potential risks to finance and project operation.To this end,the national level has carried out centralized clean-up and rectification of PPP projects since the second half of 2017,promoted the standardization of the PPP model in various places,and achieved a new round of development of the PPP model in China.In order to effectively prevent and resolve potential risks in PPP model projects,it is necessary to conduct relevant research.In terms of research methods,qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis are combined.Through the combing of different tasks in the four stages of identification,preparation,procurement and handover of PPP projects,the key features of the four main items,such as the implementation subject,implementation content and cooperation foundation,are identified.Secondly,it analyzes the attributes,characteristics and direction of PPP projects,and draws the main factors that induce the risk of PPP projects in decision-making,demand,capital and pricing.On this basis,six primary assessment indicators and 44 secondary risk assessment indicators were constructed,and the basis for conducting quantitative analysis was established.In terms of measurement methods,the SEM structural equation model is used to quantitatively analyze the potential risks in each stage of the PPP project.Based on the six primary evaluation indicators and 39 secondary evaluation indicators,six latent variables and 39observed variables in the SEM structural equation were established.Through the SEM structural equation model to estimate the parameters of the variables,the path coefficients of different evaluation indicators to the wind direction of the PPP project are obtained.The study found that the main factors affecting the risk of PPP model are policy supply,development risk and operational risk.And draw the relevant weak links in the implementation of PPP mode:First,the identification of the main body of the project is not clear enough,which will lead to development and operation problems;second,the return mechanism of the project,especially the cash flow of the project is not clear enough,there is a big risk;The contract is not detailed enough and complete,resulting in hidden risks in the project;Fourth,the irregularity of project financing methods may lead to local debt and corporate financial risks.