| With the rapid growth of China's economy and the continuous progress of urbanization,the real estate industry has become an important pillar to promote China's economic growth.Since China proposed the "three reductions and one subsidy" policy in 2015,the destocking of real estate industry has become one of the key tasks of China's supply-side structural reform.Along with the slowdown of real estate development and investment in China,the total amount of real estate inventory has been reduced,and the cycle of deleveraging has been shortened.However,the housing price in most cities has been rising rapidly.On the one hand,due to the dual nature of consumption and investment of real estate commodities,buying houses has become the most important life goal of the Chinese people.The rapid rise of housing prices drives the investment demand of buyers,especially speculative buyers,and commercial houses have turned into a situation of short supply from the original overstock.What is alarming is that the leverage of real estate enterprises has decreased,but the debt risk of residents has been accumulating in the same period,and the trend of residents' purchase with leverage has intensified.,on the other hand,the characteristics of the real estate industry is capital-intensive,long-term support of its development cannot leave the bank funds,commercial Banks in order to rapidly improve performance,stepping up investment in real estate industry,real estate credit business capital concentration is higher,most of the risk shall be transferred accordingly to residents and banking institutions,deleveraging is replaced by leverage transfer,hidden certain credit risk in banking business.The report of the 19th national congress of the communist party of China(CPC)pointed out that the bottom line of no systemic financial risks should be kept.As an important part of China's financial system,the risks of Banks are related to the lifeblood of the national economy.This paper focuses on the core theme of "real estate destocking-real estate enterprises transferring leverage to residential sectors-Banks' personal housing credit risks".Firstly,the background and significance of the topic selection are described.Supported by relevant theories and combined with the research experience of domestic and foreign scholars,the research ideas and methods of this paper are proposed,and innovations and shortcomings are pointed out.Secondly,through discussing the inventory of real estate in our country in recent years to the background and results,which leads to the inventory of real estate in our country to leverage climbed,the relationship between policy and residents department put forward because of housing inventory policy under intensified to the real estate market prices,rising residents risk appetite,investment demand expanding and the personal housing credit expansion,the analysis of the causes of higher leverage residents,summed up the resulting impact on bank risk of individual housing loan business;Finally the introduction of agriculture bank of decades of S guangxi nanning branch as a case analysis,discussed the real estate to the backdrop of the inventory of guangxi,nanning S bank branch individual housing loan business risks,and bank guard against the risk of personal housing loan business at home and abroad for reference,advanced experience,combined with actual business situation of nanning branch S bank risk measures and reasonable Suggestions.The research of this paper has certain contribution to preventing bank credit risks,ensuring the safety of bank credit funds,creating a healthy and stable development environment for the banking industry,and promoting the benign development of the banking industry and the real estate industry. |
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