The Impact Of RMB Real Exchange Rate Fluctuation On China's Export Trade

Foreign trade,as one of the three carriages to promote economic development,has always been the focus of academic research.In the current era of rapid economic globalization and diversification of international trade,economic ties among countries are becoming closer and closer,and trade activities among them are becoming more and more frequent,which also leads to the necessity of re-evaluating trade determinants in the new era.With the gradual progress of the reform of China's financial system,the control of capital flow in China will gradually relax,which means that the financial market will face more external shocks and uncertainties in the future development.Exchange rate,as a financial link between a country's currency and external currency,is of great significance to the reform and development of China's financial system.This paper studies the specific impact of real exchange rate changes on China's export trade in the contemporary environment in the perspective of real exchange rate changes in China.Gravity model is a classical model for studying international trade.This paper empirically analyses the impact of RMB real exchange rate fluctuation on China's export trade by establishing a gravity model.First,the appreciation of the real exchange rate will significantly reduce the volume of export trade between China and its trading partners.Secondly,the rise of the real exchange rate will affect the export scale by affecting the expansion margin and the intensive margin of China's exports.Specifically,the rise of the real exchange rate will reduce the types of products related to China's exports,thus reducing the expansion margin of exports.Meanwhile,the rise of the real exchange rate will reduce the intensive export of China by raising the price of exports and reducing the quantity of exports.Thirdly,the impact of real exchange rate on China's exports is heterogeneous under this classification.Specifically,compared with developing countries with homogeneous products and importers,the rise of real exchange rate has a greater negative impact on the export and importer of heterogeneous products,which is manifested in the fact that the real exchange rate's trade reduction effect is developed.Country samples and heterogeneous product samples are more intense.Fourthly,market uncertainty is an important factor affecting China's export trade.The rise of market uncertainty will magnify the trade reduction brought by the appreciation of the real exchange rate.With the rise of the real exchange rate,Chinese exporters will give priority to reducing the export trade scale of countries with high market uncertainty.Finally,after considering the possible effects of endogenous problems such as bidirectional causality and missing variables,this paper proves the robustness of the adverse effects of real exchange rate appreciation on China's export trade.