Time Risk Management Study On Project Of New Product Development

In order To improve market competitiveness,TD plans to develop a new generation of automotive carriers.A new generation of automotive carriers using belt conveyor vehicles,characterized by one-way exchange,short time and high efficiency.TD's R & D management is not strict,there is no complete new product management system,where the new product research and development to do where the calculation,always seriously delay,the biggest problem is the lack of systematic and comprehensive time risk management experience.Based on the risk planning,identification,estimation,evaluation,response,monitoring research,easy to analyze the relevant theory.In the process of risk planning,according to TD's project management process,the whole process of vehicle carrier research and development is divided into four stages,namely,planning preparation stage,project design output stage,prototype manufacturing stage and test verification stage.Work Breakdown Structure to subdivide the four stages,and then identify the risk of each item of the project.This paper is to study the time risk of project progress.In this study,the time risk of each link is defined as the optimistic time,the most likely time,the pessimistic time,and the three types of time distribution.Using Monte Carlo simulation,100 sets of random data are produced,linearly increasing from the optimistic time(minimum value),reaching the peak at the most possible time(mode),then linearly decreasing to the pessimistic time(maximum value).The percentage of the time delay is calculated as a percentage of the planned time in the project schedule,which is both the probability of occurrence of the risk and identifies the significant risks in the development process.The higher the probability of risk,the more frequent the risk occurs,the lower the probability,the more likely the risk does not occur,according to the risk probability level to further assess the risk factor;the greater the risk severity value,the more serious consequences of the risk,the seriousness of the risk The lower the value,the less likely the risk consequence is.According to the severity rating of risk factors,the impact of the overall risk of the probability of severity and severity of the risk in the registry to deal with strategies.According to the risk probability,optimize the overall plan of the project,arrange the time rationally,eliminate the time risk item that can be eliminated on the schedule;according to the risk countermeasure and combine the actual project actual situation,take the item that can not eliminate the risk Positive coping strategies,such as increasing manpower and material resources to deal with the adverse effects of risk mitigation on the overall schedule.This paper is to study the time risk of project progress.In the study,the time risk of each link is defined as the optimistic time,the most likely time,the pessimistic time,and the three types of time distribution.Using Monte Carlo simulation,100 sets of random data are produced,linearly increasing from the optimistic time(minimum value),reaching the peak at the most possible time(mode),then linearly decreasing to the pessimistic time(maximum value)The percentage of the time delay is calculated as a percentage of the planned time in the project schedule,which is both the probability of occurrence of the risk and identifies the significant risks in the development process.