| The world economic development is facing the biggest test since the 2008 financial crisis.Trump challenged the world by virtue of the United States as a world superpower and launched a trade war against major countries in the world.The foreign trade policy based on the "America first" and "Fair trade" is making it possible to draw more economic benefits from other countries in the world.The trade war against China is particularly prominent.Since the establishment of diplomatic relations between China and the United States,the economy has been interdependent and has achieved tremendous development.However,in the era of Trump,Sino-US economic and trade relations have become confusing.Trump's internal and external policies,especially the trade policy with China,reflect the unique nature of "American interests first",which also erodes the stable Sino-US economic and trade relations.Looking at Trump's logic of launching a trade war with China,it can be summarized from three aspects: the dislocation of cognitive concepts,the imbalance of interests under economic globalization,the pain in China's economic growth,and the political can be summarized as two aspects: paving the way for the American mid-term elections and the status of an “established power” can't be challenged.There is no winner in the trade war and the consequence is that both will be injured,then the two countries' economies are facing recession.As the two most important economies in the world,the recession of the Sino-US economy will also drag down the developing global economy.The impact of Trump's trade war with China on China's economic development can be measured from both qualitative and quantitative perspectives.In qualitative way,the United States,as the largest market for Chinese exports,the trade war will inevitably lead to Chinese companies increasing to invest in the United States,considering the reasons for product costs and other reasons,but it will also face Trump's special trade review for Chinese companies;The increased risk will also reduce the support for economic development and employment;Thanks to economic globalization,China's economy has achieved rapid development,but Trump's anti-global trade protection policy will further block China's own economic development.However,China's related naive industries will gain corresponding opportunities of development due to the trade war.China can also use this chance to vigorously develop the“Belt and Road”.In quantitative way,The Global Trade Analysis Model(GTAP)is widely used to examine the impact of policy adjustments(such as tariffs)on GDP,welfare,import and export trade,etc.This paper is also based on this model to examine the effect of the main aspects of China's economic that trade war initiated by Trump.Trump's trade war against China is the world's largest trade war since World War II.It has used coercion and inducement to suppress China in order to contain China's peaceful development and consolidate its global hegemony,but it underestimated the determination of china defending national interests.China is committed to safeguarding its legitimate interests and opposing hegemony.In the face of Trump's aggressive posture,We may not be able toescape the tragic fate similar to the stagnation of economic development after Japan signed the Plaza Agreement.However,hard-hitting will make each other lose both sides and cause unnecessary losses to themselves.Therefore,China should adopt a round-trip and effective strategy to deal with it.On this basis,we will further open up and promote national consumption;expand the domestic market;steadily promote industrial transformation and upgrading,and accelerate the construction of the “Belt and Road”.At the same time,enterprises must also grasp both technology and intellectual property rights;in this sensitive stage,Trump will certainly cause trouble to Chinese companies,and Chinese companies must actively appeal to the international community on the basis of compliance. |
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