An Empirical Study On The Impact Of Tariff Concessions For China's Mechanical And Electrical Products Exports Under The Framework Of CAFTA

Since the 18 th National Congress of the Communist Party of China,the Central Committee of the CPC has explicitly proposed to speed up the implementation of the Free Trade Area(FTA)strategy,and gradually establish the FTA network based on the periphery,the One Belt and One Road area,and the whole world.This important deployment has pointed out the direction for China to comprehensively open-up and deepen the implementation of the FTA strategy.On the other hand,with the world's economy plunged into a period of turbulent adjustment,protectionism and unilateralism in some countries showed signs of rising.International multilateralism and free trade system suffered serious shocks.The international community increasingly expects China to maintain the development of free trade system and promote the liberalization of trade gains.Under this background,a reasonable assessment of the economic effect of free trade system,can provide the theoretical and practical basis for the further implementation of the FTA strategy.As far as the practice of trade liberalization between China and its neighboring countries is concerned,the China-ASEAN Free Trade Area(CAFTA)is the first FTA in which China participates in,and at the same time the largest one with the most mature cooperation mechanism.After nearly twenty years of mutually beneficial development,China has achieved fruitful results from CAFTA cooperation.As China and ASEAN concluded the negotiations on the upgrading of the FTA in November 2015 and signed the Upgraded Protocol on deepening cooperation,the level of facilitation of bilateral trade,services,investment and other cooperation has been further enhanced,setting a model for China to accelerate the FTA strategy.Based on the economic and trade data of China,ASEAN and other countries and regions in the past 20 years,this paper intuitively describes the basic situation of bilateral trade between China and ASEAN.Based on the process of tariff concessions in ASEAN countries and from the perspective of China's export of mechanical and electrical products,we scientifically evaluate the actual effect of CAFTA on promoting the growth of China's export of mechanical and electrical products by using quantitative analysis methods such as difference-in-difference(DID)model.Through quantitative analysis of the objective role of the implementation of FTA strategy on bilateral trade,especially export trade,this paper provides experience for the follow-up deepening implementation of FTA strategy.Specifically,through the indicators of Revealed Comparative Advantage Index and Trade Complementarity Index,this paper firstly analyses some chapters with comparative advantage in China's mechanical and electrical products according to HS classification,providing an intuitive and factual description for subsequent targeted research and analysis.On this basis,combined with the ASEAN countries' tariff concessions arrangements for China's mechanical and electrical products under the framework of CAFTA,it reflects the interrelationship between ASEAN countries' tariff concessions and China's mechanical and electrical products exports from multiple perspectives.Secondly,in the empirical analysis part,this paper uses the 2005 CAFTA Agreement on Trade in Goods to implement this exogenous event.Moreover,the DID model is used to eliminate the endogenous interference between trade liberalization and export growth,and to evaluate the promotion effect of tariff concessions on China's mechanical and electrical exports under the CAFTA framework.The results show that CAFTA has a significant promoting effect on China's mechanical and electrical exports,and this trade growth effect still has a relatively obvious lagging effect.From the perspective of subdividing countries,CAFTA plays a more prominent role in promoting China's export of mechanical and electrical products from the old ASEAN member countries.The weighted tariff rate of ASEAN countries for a section of HS is reduced by an average of 1%,China's exports of mechanical and electrical products in this section will increase by an average of about $35 million.Finally,based on the conclusion of empirical analysis,this paper proposes that we should adhere to the basic principle of both quantity and quality,and continue to promote the innovation and development of China's high-end manufacturing industry.We should also focus on strengthening the complementary trade of mechanical and electrical products between China and ASEAN countries,and properly deal with potential trade frictions.And we should continue to implement the FTA strategy.From the perspective of research,this paper focuses on the export trade of China's mechanical and electrical products.By using the method of comparative analysis and empirical analysis,it summarizes and combs the basic situation of China's mechanical and electrical products export trade,CAFTA tariff concession arrangement and the progress of China's FTA strategy implementation in recent years.Taking CAFTA as an example,this paper analyzes the positive impact of the implementation of the FTA strategy on improving China's export trade.In terms of research methods,based on the classical gravity model estimation in the field of trade,this paper further uses the emerging policy evaluation methods such DID,DDD and PSM-DID.Based on the panel data sets of 30 countries and regions from 1998 to 2017,the economic effects of FTA strategy implementation are quantitatively analyzed,which improves the persuasiveness and reliability of the research results.On the one hand,the conclusions can provide countermeasures for China to accelerate the implementation of FTA strategy and enhance the export competitiveness of mechanical and electrical products.On the other hand,it can also provide ideas and methods for future research on other FTAs in which China participates.