The Appropriate Scale Of Tourism Destination Circle: Quantitative Discrimination And Evolution Analysis

Since the beginning of the 21 st century,with the continuous deepening of regional tourism collaboration,the Tourism Destination Circle(TDC)has emerged as a geospatial organization and developed rapidly.The number of TDC in mainland China has increased year by year,and the number of participating cities in the TDC are showing an expanding trend.As a sign of regional/urban tourism collaboration,the boundary and space scale of TDC are worthy of attention.The large scale of TDC will lead to the non-efficient use of tourism resources,too small will make the tourist demand of tourists difficult to meet.This kind of reality can not help but make people think: Is there a threshold for the expansion of the scale of TDC? Are there any trends and patterns in the changes in the layer structure and scale of TDC?The academic circles make a lot of research on TDC,but most of them pay attention to the qualitative expressions,and it is difficult to accurately describe the appropriate scale of the tourism circle.The quantitative measures only focus on the analysis of the influencing factors of tourism flow and the spatial pattern of tourism industry.The scholars at home and abroad generally study the scale of TDC from the perspective of tourism demand.The demand dynamic of regional tourism collaboration(the construction of TDC)lies in the spatial spillover effect of tourism flow.As an important perspective to judge the appropriateness of the scale of TDC,the maximization of the effect represents the most appropriate scale of TDC.Therefore,the determination of the intensity of tourism spillover effects is an effective way to measure the effectiveness of regional tourism collaboration.Spatial econometrics has been receiving extensive attention in tourism research.The weight matrix involved in the spatial econometric model can represent the number of neighboring cities.The spatial regression coefficient can represent the intensity of tourism flow spillover effects between cities,while the intensity of tourism spilloverscan reflect the effectiveness of regional tourism collaboration.Based on this,this paper takes 2001-2015 as the research period,takes 341 prefecture-level units(cities)in mainland China as the research area,takes domestic tourism demand(tourism flow)as the research object,domestic basic data such as regional GDP,grade highway density,construction conditions of high-speed railway station/airport and climate comfort period,as well as domestic tourism data such as the number of AAAA and AAAAA scenic spots,are used as research data foundations.Spatial measurement and geographic modeling methods are used to introduce the number of tourists in the surrounding cities into the model as spatial lag dependent variables.This paper controls the number of neighboring cities by changing the weight matrix,obtains the intensity of tourism spillover effect under different scenarios,analyzes the characteristics of the spatial regression coefficient,and then explores the evolution of the layer structure and appropriate scale of TDC.The following conclusions are made:(1)There is spatial correlation in domestic tourism flows,and five major factors affecting domestic tourism flows are determined through regression analysis:economic base,surrounding market,tourism attraction,infrastructure and external transportation;(2)There is a spatial lag effect in tourism flow,and a spatial regression model of tourism flow considering the lag effect is established,and then the spatial organization structure and appropriate scale of TDC are analyzed;(3)As time progresses,the stratification phenomenon of TDC has the characteristics of stage evolution,the layer structure is continuously completed,and the evolution of the appropriate scale of TDC has the characteristics of convergence.As the scale continues to expand,it eventually converges to convergence mode;(4)Judging by the calculation of the spatial regression coefficient ?: The patch layer(core layer)of TDC contains roughly 4-8 cities,the appropriate TDC(patch layer and halo layer)contains17-22 cities.At the same time,there are still a few shortcomings in this study that need to beimproved: First,the research data needs to be completed.In this paper,the analysis of the tourism flow only considers the number of domestic tourists,and does not take into account the important position of the number of inbound tourists in China's tourism development;Second,the regional differences are not fully considered.China has a vast territory,and there are significant differences in economic development and tourism development between different regions.But the research results have not provided targeted guidance for tourism development in specific regions.However,this study hopes to use this exploration process to provide a certain guiding direction on the construction of China's TDC and regional tourism collaboration.