Empirical Study On The Influence Of Livelihood Expenditure On The Residents' Consumption

After China's economy has entered a new normal,economic development is facing structural adjustment and transformation of development mode.Under the macro-background of economic development optimization and upgrading,export is blocked and high investment is difficult to sustain.Consumption must be promoted as a long-term mechanism to promote economic growth and enhance the basic role of consumption in economic development.However,the growth rate of consumption is showing a weak trend.As an important fiscal policy tool,people's livelihood fiscal expenditure can not only guarantee and improve people's livelihood,but also enhance residents' consumption expectations,enhance residents' consumption confidence and reduce residents' Preventive Savings motivation.Therefore,it is of great significance to further study the impact of people's livelihood fiscal expenditure on residents' consumption.Based on Keynesian consumption theory and neoclassical economics theory,this paper studies the relationship between people's livelihood fiscal expenditure and residents' consumption from two perspectives of "crowding in effect" and "crowding out effect".Then we use the provincial panel data to analyze the current situation of China's natural financial expenditure and residents' consumption.Then,based on the theoretical points,we construct an econometric model and use the provincial panel data from 1998 to 2016 to estimate the level and structure of people's livelihood financial expenditure systematically by GMM.From the empirical study of the impact of livelihood fiscal expenditure on household consumption,it is found that at the national level,livelihood fiscal expenditure can promote household consumption,and livelihood fiscal expenditure has a significant positive effect on household consumption rate and per capita consumption.Regionally,in the eastern,central and Western regions,the level of livelihood fiscal expenditure has a significant "crowding-in effect" on improving residents' consumption rate and per capita consumption,but the intensity of the effect is different.The "crowding-in effect" of livelihood fiscal expenditure on residents' consumption rate is the strongest in the eastern region,followed by the central region and the weakest in the Western region.The "crowding-in effect" of government expenditure on per capita consumption is the strongest in the central region,followed by the eastern region and the weakest in the western region.The empirical results of the impact of livelihood fiscal expenditure structure on household consumption show that the impact of education,health care,social security and employment expenditure on household consumption varies from national level.Educational expenditure has a positive effect on residents' consumption,and the estimated coefficients of consumption rate and per capita consumption are both positive;the estimated coefficients of medical and health expenditure and per capita consumption are significantly positive,but negative but not significant;social security and employment expenditure have a "crowding-in effect" on residents' consumption rate,while the opposite is true for per capita consumption.Regionally,in the eastern region,education expenditure and medical and health expenditure have significant positive effects on improving the consumption rate and per capita consumption of residents;social security and employment expenditure have significant positive effects on the consumption rate of residents,but not on the per capita consumption of residents.In the central region,the coefficients of education expenditure and household consumption rate are negative but not significant,while medical and health expenditure,social security and employment expenditure and household consumption rate are significantly positive.The structure of livelihood fiscal expenditure has a significant positive effect on the per capita consumption of residents.In the western region,education expenditure has a significant positive effect on improving the consumption rate and per capita consumption of residents;the coefficient of medical and health expenditure and per capita consumption rate is significantly positive,but it is significantly negative with per capita consumption of residents;the coefficient of social security and employment expenditure is significantly positive,and the coefficient of per capita consumption of residents is negative but has not passed the significant test.Finally,according to the relevant theories of the impact of livelihood fiscal expenditure on residents' consumption and the results of empirical tests,this paper puts forward some suggestions to further stimulate residents' consumption from the following aspects: improving the investment intensity of livelihood fiscal expenditure,optimizing the structure of livelihood fiscal expenditure,and formulating fiscal policies according to local conditions.