| Energy is closely related to human living standards and the national industrial development.The changes of energy prices are often accompanied by changes in the national economic and political structure.In recent years,factors such as the excessive financialization of energy products,the speculation and the fluctuations in the international market have led to great fluctuation in China’s energy prices.The market price of energy and the scarcity of energy products cannot be completely equated in China.Therefore,it is necessary to explore the source of fluctuations in energy prices and judge the sustainability of fluctuations in order to cope with the potential energy shocks.In addition,as the country vigorously develops low-carbon economy,the consumption of petroleum and natural gas is increasing,and energy products such as coal,petroleum and natural gas have a certain degree of substitution.Therefore,compared with the study of the price fluctuations of a single product,the study of the changes in bulk energy price has greater significance for the real economy.At the same time,with the development of energy finance,the financial attributes of energy are increasing.Based on the above reasons,this paper will take energy finance as an entry point to analyze how financial factors affect China’s bulk energy price.This paper selects the energy price index of China Commodity Price Index(CCPI)released by China Circulation Industry Network to represent China’s bulk energy price.The financial variables selected from the existing research include money supply,credit scale,stock price,international crude oil futures price,long-term loan interest rate and the intermediate exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB.The data are monthly data from June 2006 to December 2018.This paper has carried out the following research: firstly,we analyze the mechanism of financial variables affecting energy prices based on the theoretical basis;secondly,we collect and preprocess data according to the selected variables,text the stability and long-term co-integration relationship of the sequences;thirdly,we use the co-integration equation and VECM to analyze the static relationship between financial factors and China’s bulk energy price fluctuations;finally,we use the State Space Model to analyze the time-varying impact of financial factors on China’s bulk energy price.This paper mainly draws the following conclusions: First,the financing mode of energy enterprises is relatively simple,and the dependence on bank loans is relatively high,but the degree of dependence is gradually decreasing.Second,the internationalcrude oil futures market can guide and influence the China’s bulk energy price on a large degree.Third,energy prices are greatly affected by monetary policy,and has no significant relationship with the domestic stock market.Fourth,energy dependence on foreign countries is high in our country,and the exchange rate risk is large.Based on the research conclusions,this paper puts forward proposals on stabilizing energy prices and reducing the risk of price fluctuations from three levels—the government,financial institutions and energy enterprises.Firstly,the People’s Bank of China should prudently implement monetary policy,promote the internationalization of the RMB,and accelerate the transformation of the energy structure.Secondly,the government and relevant institutions should accelerate the construction of the domestic energy futures market and strengthen the feedback of China’s stock market;Thirdly,financial institutions should promote the construction of domestic energy financial system and increase the implementation of green credit.Finally,energy enterprises should actively explore new financing methods and strengthen the market-oriented management of enterprises. |
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