The Study Of Energy-saving Policy Based On CGE Model

Energy not only is one kind of important production goods, but also is one kind of important subsistence goods. Therefore, how do we use Energy effectively and guarantee the sustainable development in our economy becomes extremely important research topic in the various countries. In order to transform the economical growth way, optimize the industrial structure and urge the national economy sustainable development, The Chinese government has recently set a target of reducing energy consumption intensity by 20% during the 11th Five - Year - Plan period (2006 - 2010). So how does the change mechanism of energy intensity move? Which the operational policy measures government can adopt to reduce its energy intensity? And what will the policy measures influence the macroscopic economy? Such questions are the keystone that Chinese government and the scholar pay attention to, but traditional ways can't get us correct conclusion. So this paper uses the CGE model to study the energy-saving policy in quantitative way.This paper uses CGE model to evaluate the impact on energy intensity and economic growth imposed by technological progress, energy price and energy taxes. Each chapter of content arranged is as follows: The first chapter analyses the situation of domestic and foreign energy conservation policy research by the numbers, grasps the research tendency in the energy policy. The second chapter analyses the efficiency in using energy by the numbers. The third chapter adds an energy substitution module and the index of energy intensity to the Chinese CGE model—MCHUGE model. The fourth chapter analyzes the problem that technological progress reduces energy intensity. The results show that if the technological level of energy using advances 0.762% between 2006 and 2010, China can reduce its energy intensity by 1% every year and 5% in the end of the 11th Five-Year-Plan. The fifth chapter evaluates the impacts of energy intensity imposed by the taxation of energy tax in China in both short run and long run. The simulation results show that by the taxation of energy tax with 27 Yuan per ton standard coal, China can reduce its energy intensity by 6.9% in the short run and 6.99% in the long run. Although such a behavior shall bring some negative results to the growth of GDP and other energy-highly-related industries in the short run, yet in the long run these side effects can be ignored. The sixth chapter evaluates the impact on energy intensity and economic growth imposed by energy price. Study shows that the uproar of energy price shall reduce China's energy intensity sharply both in the long run and short run. However, this shall bring some side effects on China's macro economy.The innovation spot in this paper is that, it's the first time in our country to use CGE model to study the energy-saving policy in quantitative way, and then all research results are synthesized, with unifying the actual national condition of our country at present we put forward the related policy proposal.