Logistics Outsourcing Contract With Inconsistent Prediction Of The Impact Of Logistics Level On Market Demand Under New Retail

With the continuous development of information technology,Jack Ma first proposed the concept of "new retail" at the Yunxi Conference in Hangzhou in 2016."New retail" is a deep integration of online and offline and logistics companies.From selling goods to consumers to consumer services,high-quality and efficient logistics services directly affect consumers' experience and affect the number of market sales.But what is the impact of logistics services on market demand? At this point,new retailers and third-party logistics companies often have inconsistent predictions due to differences in their data sources,analysis methods,and market awareness.This inconsistency will lead to differences between new retailers and third-party logistics companies in terms of price,quantity,and service level of logistics services,and even cause the partnership to break down.To this end,in view of the inconsistencies in market predictions,the logistics outsourcing contract between new retailers and third-party logistics companies was studied.First,in a perfectly competitive market,a logistics outsourcing contract model with a variable total market capacity and a constant total market capacity is constructed.Research shows that the market demand ratio coefficient is constantly changing.When the total market capacity is unchanged,inconsistent forecasts do not affect the conclusion of outsourcing agreements.The unit price of logistics outsourcing agreements is not affected by inconsistent forecasts.The forecasts are positively correlated,and the earnings of new retailers are positively correlated with the forecasts of both parties.When the total market capacity is variable,inconsistent predictions will affect the conclusion of the outsourcing agreement.The outsourcing agreement can only be reached when the product predicted by the two parties is greater than the threshold.The agreed unit price,logistics service level,and revenue of both parties are different from their respective The predictions are positively correlated.Subsequently,under an imperfectly competitive market,a logistics outsourcing contract model with a variable total market capacity and a constant total market capacity was constructed.The research shows that when the total market capacity is unchanged,the change in the market demand forecast growth coefficient affects the conclusion of the logistics outsourcing agreement.When the third-party logistics company does not provide logistics services,the two parties can reach an outsourcing agreement,which is not in line with practical significance.Under the situation that the total market capacity is constantlychanging,the growth factor of market demand prediction affects the conclusion of the logistics outsourcing agreement.There are thresholds in the process of reaching the agreement,and the maximum profit of new retailers and third-party logistics companies exists.Finally,the main research conclusions are summarized,and further research directions are determined from the further changes in the market demand function and the risk aversion differences between new retail service providers and third-party logistics companies.