Research On Influencing Factors Of Land Transfer From The Perspective Of Options

In recent years,the rapid development of China's real estate market has made outstanding contributions to economic growth,but the rapid rise in real estate prices has also become a social focus."Land finance" is considered to be one of the reasons for the rapid rise in real estate prices.The value of land and the transfer of land have been the focus of academic research.Based on the literature research,this article measures the value of land options,and uses the characteristic price model and the survival analysis model as tools to study the factors that affect the land transfer price and the possibility of transfer,respectively.The article compares and analyzes the differences in the impact of house price volatility and option value on land transfer prices and transfer possibilities.The research results show that the impact of uncertainty on land transfer prices and transfer possibilities is in line with option theory.For each increase in standard house price volatility,the land transfer price increased by 3.66%on average,and the possibility of land transfer decreased by 21.72%on average.For every 1%increase in option value,the land transfer price increases by an average of 0.782%;for every 100 million yuan in option value increase,the possibility of land transfer decreases by an average of 1.23%.With a certain option value,the positive impact of fiscal pressure on the possibility of land transfer will weaken.Most of the parcel characteristic variables have a significant positive impact on land transfer prices,but the regression coefficient on the possibility of land transfer is not significant.Among the market factor variables,the general currency growth rate and the benchmark real estate interest rate have a negative impact on the land transfer price.Other variables have no significant impact on the land transfer price;however,the regression coefficients on the possibility of land transfer have passed the 1%level.Significance test.The population density has a positive impact on the possibility of land transfer,confirming the impact of population concentration and urban expansion on land transfer and development.Fiscal pressure has a positive impact on the possibility of land transfer,which proves the local government's land financial behavior from an empirical perspective.The negative impact of current house prices on the possibility of land transfers indicates that the local government "covered the land and sold it" when the housing market rose.Judging from the empirical results of the broad money growth rate,the benchmark mortgage interest rate,and policy easing on the possibility of land transfer,all three have a positive impact,indicating that macroeconomic policies have a greater impact on local government land transfer decisions.