Warning Of Cash Flow Automotive Industry Based On Listed Companies' Financial Crisis

Automobile industry plays an important role in the national economy, and itsfinancial situation is paid more and more attention. Through researching on the financialcrisis early-warning of this industry, the signal of financial crisis can be discoveredimmediately, so as far as possible for people to take measures to deal with the crisis.The thesis takes a new perspective-cash flow-to the research on financial crisisearly-warning, in order to improve the effectiveness and accuracy of early-warning.Firstly, the thesis summarizes the related literature at home and abroad, andelaborates the related theories of the cash flow and financial crisis early-warning.Secondly, the thesis analyzes deeply the current situation of financial crisisearly-warning of automobile industry listed companies. Thirdly, from the perspective ofthe structure of cash flow and ratio of cash flow (including ability to obtain cash,solvency, the quality of earnings, financial flexibility), the thesis selects18indexes.Using the combination of principal component analysis and logistic regression analysis,the thesis constructs financial crisis early-warning model of automobile industry listedcompanies based on cash flow, and tests the effect of the early-warning model. Finally,applying the model of financial crisis early-warning, the thesis analyzes the financialsituation of Shandong Binzhou Bohai piston as a case study.