Analysis On Chinese Consumption Cycle Monitoring,Forecasting And Influencing Factors

Investment,consumption,and net exports are "troikas" that drive economic growth,and their effects on the economy are not balanced.For a long time in the past,China's economic growth was mainly driven by investment.However,since economic development entered the new nornal,the growth rate of investment has been declining,even lower than that of GDP.Nevertheless,Consumption is occupying an increas:ing proportion of economic growth,which gives it a more and more important role in economic development.On the other hand,the consumption growth rate has been in a downward state in recent years,due to the interaction effects of economic restructuring,transformation of growth drivers and development mode.In the face of this macroeconomic situation,if we are supposed to achieve the overall goal of "steady growth","steady consumption" has become a top priority.Under this background,aiming to reveal the present stage of consumption fluctuation characteristies,Predict futUre trends,and clarify the main factors affecting the consumption cycle,this paper uses the methods of business cycle analysis,wavelet decomposition and reconstruction,Dynamic Model Average(DMA)to measure and forecast the short-term trend of consumption growth,and further analyses its influencing factors.This has a major impact on formulating reasonable and effective consumption policies,maintaining the steady growth of consumption,and increasing the contribution rate of consumption to economic growth in China.The main research work of this paper includes the following aspects:(1)Measurement and fluctuation characteristic analysis of China's consumption growth rate cycle.This paper adopts the method of business cycle analysis to measure the consumption conditions and then systematically explains the characteristics of China's consumption cycle.Firstly,we select the increasing speed of total retail sales of consumer goods as the monitoring object.Second,we use the BB method to measure the turning point of China's consumption cycle based on the turning point in the growth cycle.Dividing the cycle of consumption growth according to the turning point,we summarize the characteristics of the cycle fluctuation of consumption growth:the average cycle length is 4 years and 4 months.However,the fourth round of cyclical fluctuations from May 2009 to November 2016 began to show structural changes,the length of which extended to 7.5 years.At present,the consumption cycle is in the contraction period of the fifth cycle fluctuation,which ended in March 2019.(2)Screening of leading indicators of consumption and determination of leading periods.The wavelet decomposition and reconstruction method is used to screen the leading indicators and eonstruct the leading indicators system for consumption.Then,compare the trend of the leading composite index with the total retail sales of consumer goods,and measure the leading period of the leading composite index relative to the total retail sales of consumer goods.Finally,make a prediction based on the trend of the consumer-first composite index that consumption growth will fluctuate within a small range in the short term,and the probability of a greater degree of expansion or contraction is small.The conclusion is waiting to be proved by reality.(3)Analysis of influencing factors of consumption growth.We use the dynamic model averaging(DMA)to analyze and demonstrate the main factors that influence the consumption cycle fluctuation.The purpose is to reveal the influence degree of the changes of various influencing factors on the change of consumption growth rate,and provide a basis for enriching the research on China's consumption field and the government's macro-control.The results of the model show that the growth rate of per capita income,money supply,fixed asset investment and industrial added value generally maintains a positive relationship with the growth rate of eonsumption,while the time-varying coefficient of consumer price index and average real estate price turns from positive to negative in 2018.It means that the increase rate of prices is accelerated,which has a restraining effect on the growth rate of Chinese residents,consumption.The effect of the growth of average real estate price on consumption changed from wealth effect to crowding out effect.The innovation of this paper lies in:(1)The research content of this paper monitors and analyzes consumption comprehensively from the perspective of cycle,and summarizes the fluctuation characteristics of consumption growth rate.In particular,the analysis of the characteristics of the consumption cycle under the new normal enriches the research on the consumption cycle in China.(2)Established a leading indicator system for predicting consumption trends.By the wavelet decomposition and reconstruction,the indicators are divided into different frequency bands,and the leading indicators of consumption are searched from diferent frequency bands and the periodic components are extracted,which contributes to get a good antecedent composite index.After China enters the new normal period,the consumption cycle fluctuation gradually tends to be microwave,which makes it more difficult to accurately describe the consumption cycle.This paper solves this problem to some extent by applying wavelet decomposition and reconstruction.(3)When exploring the influencing factors of consumption fluctuation,we use DMA method,a dynamic model with time-varying property,to reveal the influencing factors of consumption fluctuation.This method overcomes the limitations of existing models and can better describe the contribution of major explanatory variables to consumption fluctuations.Moreover,this model eliminates subjective factors in the variable selection process,which make the results more credible.