| With the transformation of economic development mode and the improvement of scientific and technological innovation ability,exploring the new path of regional economic development has gradually become an important topic in the study of industrial evolution.To avoid the regional industrial evolution locked in the low-end road and promote the high-quality development of the economy,it is necessary to explore the dynamic mechanism of regional industrial evolution.In recent years,the rise of evolutionary economic geography advocates the study of regional industrial succession from a dynamic perspective,and revisits the path of knowledge spillover through "technological relatedness" and "cognitive proximity".Relevant empirical studies show that the dynamic evolution of regional industries is significantly influenced by technology correlation,that is,regional tends to develop industries with high correlation with local industrial structure.However,evolutionary economic geography places too much emphasis on the influence of endogenous variables such as technology correlation,neglects the intervention of external forces in the evolution of regional industries,especially for countries that emphasize the importance of government macro-control and market,and the study of China's industrial evolution cannot ignore the influence of policies.Since the establishment of China's first Dalian Economic and Technological Development Zone in 1984,the development zone has become a common industrial policy adopted by all levels of government in China,and its set-up policy focus has gradually tilted from the initial attraction of foreign investment and the promotion of economic growth to the goal of industrial restructuring and upgrading.Therefore,on the basis of industrial technology correlation,it is of great significance to study the influence of the industrial policy of the development zone on the dynamic evolution of regional industry,and to guide the industrial upgrading of the region.In the context of China's large-scale approval of the establishment of provincial development zones in 2006,the window period of research will be locked in 2004-2008,with 462 four-digit manufacturing industries in 113 cities and above in the eastern coastal areas as the research object,from the four aspects of industrial entry,comparative advantage,loss of comparative advantage and exit.Research on technology linkages,industrial policies and manufacturing evolution.Firstly,from the province's overall and double-digit industries and other aspects to measure the dynamic evolution of the provinces and cities of manufacturing characteristics,the use of Arc GIS to depict the dynamic evolution of the eastern coastal areas of the city-level manufacturing industry dynamic evolution of the spatial pattern,and secondly,the use of product space methods,the eastern coast and typical economic areas of the industrial space,And from the comparative advantage to analyze the typical regional manufacturing industry evolution path.Then the relationship between technology correlation,industrial policy and the dynamic evolution of manufacturing industry is studied and the relevant characteristics are summarized.Finally,the Probit regression model is constructed,the influence of technology correlation and industrial policy on the dynamic evolution of manufacturing industry is analyzed,and its interaction is examined.The main conclusions are drawn:(1)The dynamic change of manufacturing industry in the eastern coastal area is remarkable,and the regularity is characterized.The speed of industrial system construction is negatively correlated with the regional manufacturing base,and the regional industry growth rate of the manufacturing base is fast.From the characteristics of the dynamic evolution of the internal industry of manufacturing industry,there is a strong correlation between chemical raw materials and chemicals manufacturing industry,non-metallic mineral products industry,general equipment manufacturing industry,special equipment manufacturing industry dynamic is strong,and the dynamic evolution of manufacturing industry and the level of economic development and the existing manufacturing base have a strong correlation.(2)The industrial space of the eastern coastal area presents a distinct "core-edge" structure,and is a dual core,one consisting of labor or resource-intensive core of food and tobacco,textile and clothing,chemical raw materials and their products,and a capital technology-intensive core consisting of communication equipment manufacturing,transportation equipment,electrical machinery and instrumentation.From 2004 to 2008,both cores showed a trend of path dependence.(3)The path and direction of the manufacturing industry evolution of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei,Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta are different,all of which are characterized by the process of path dependence,in which the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region continues to evolve in the direction of labor-intensive or resource-intensive industries such as food tobacco,textile and clothing,non-metallic mineral products and chemical raw materials with production advantages.Under the condition of maintaining the existing advantages,the Yangtze River Delta region has evolved in the direction of technology-intensive industries such as general machinery manufacturing,and the Pearl River Delta region continues to evolve in the direction of capital or technology industries such as the manufacture of communication equipment and the manufacture of transportation equipment with advantages.(4)During the study period,there were obvious industry differences in the implementation of technology correlation density and industrial policy.The industries with high average industrial technology correlation density are mostly labor-intensive and resource-intensive industries,while those with low technology correlation density are technology or capital-intensive industries,reflecting the weak knowledge base of high-tech industrial development at this stage.Industrial policy implementation in the manufacturing industry is also different,local governments tend to high technology correlation density industry as a target industry,this may be due to the need for performance appraisal,high technology correlation density of the advantage spree industry in a short period of time to maintain or pull GDP growth,so as to get the favor of the local government.However,there are also few development zones that support low-tech-related industries.Industrial transformation and upgrading is a painful process of transformation,local economic development needs to go out of their comfort zone,in order to win a place in the future.(5)The dynamic evolution of manufacturing industry is significantly influenced by industrial technology relatedness in the eastern coastal areas,the more likely it is for industries with high technology relatedness density to enter and gain comparative advantage,and the less likely it is to exit and lose comparative advantage.In addition,the paper also found that the dynamic evolution of urban manufacturing industry with low level of economic development is more affected by technology correlation than in cities with high level of economic development,but not by the urban administrative level.(6)Industrial policy has a significant effect on the dynamic evolution of manufacturing industry in the eastern coastal areas,and the support of development zones can improve the possibility of industry entry and comparative advantage,and also reduce the possibility of industry losing comparative advantage and exit.This paper also finds that the influence of industrial policy on the dynamic evolution of manufacturing industry is not affected by the level of urban economic development,but by the urban administrative level.In general,the dynamic evolution of urban manufacturing with high administrative levels is more influenced by incremental policies,while the dynamic evolution of urban manufacturing with low administrative levels is more affected by stock policies.In addition,it was found that the interaction between technology linkages and industrial policies was not obvious. |
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