Research On Risk Assessment Of Soybean Industry Cluster

Soybean is one of the most important grain and oil crops in the world today.China is not only one of the major soybean producers,but also the largest consumer of soybeans and their related products in the world.At present,due to the high production cost and low yield of soybeans in China,soybeans and their products mainly rely on the import to meet domestic demand.How to improve the worse situation is an issue more urgent and unavoidable.In recent years,the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs has continuously upgraded the soybean revitalization plan,and the soybean industry and its cluster develop rapidly.The soybean industry cluster,as an effective economic organization form in revitalization of soybean industry,can encourage many farmers,enterprises and supporting industries in certain regions in their developing,and offer more opportunities for their developing.Moreover,the degree of soybean industry cluster will directly decide the developing phrase of whole soybean industry.Meanwhile,the some obvious risk problems will accompany the evolution of soybean industry clusters themselves.Recently Sino-US trade friction give a direct influence to China's soybean industry,the weak competitiveness and risk resistance are completely exposed.In addition,under the continuous developing of the soybean industry cluster,some risk problems of its own are increasingly exposed.In order to make the China's soybean industry progressive and healthful,systematic risk evaluation of soybean industry cluster would be essential.In this work,the initial risk indicator system of soybean industry cluster is determined through literature review,and Delphi method is introduced to analyze and discuss with some specialist and enterprises' managers in the soybean industry cluster of China about the condition and risks of the soybean industry cluster in China.In this study,Michael E.Porter's diamond model was employed to establish five first-level indicators,and Delphi method to determine the sixth level one,and to refines their second-and third-level indicators,eventually to establish the risk index evaluation system of soybean industry cluster in China.In addition,the weighting of indicators at level one and level two were calculated by Decision-Making Trial and Evaluation Lab(DEMATEL)and Analytic Network Process(ANP).Then use the Analytic Hierarchy Process(AHP)to determine the weight of the third level risk indicators.Finally,Evidential Reasoning Approach(ERA)was introduced to build a risk evaluation model:the risk index weight and the confidence of each indicator were selected to qualitatively evaluate the risk index of soybean industry cluster,and to range the risk index at different levels.The soybean food science and technology industrial park in Nenjiang City,Heilongjiang Province was selected as a sample for the risk evaluation in this work.The results declare that enterprise risk,soybean product demand risk and government risk are the most prominent risk factors of the soybean industry cluster in China.Fortunately,these risk factors are improvable,which means that the main risks in soybean industry cluster are controllable.The results of this study will contribute theoretical basis and technical support for the risk assessment of soybean industry cluster in China.It will be helpful for enterprise managers and policy-maker of industrial cluster who aspire to controlling the risk factors in soybean industry clusters,and it will also benefit to administrators in drafting long-term planning of the development of soybean industry and its cluster,and to government departments in formulating relevant policies scientific and systematic.