| As a recognized agricultural country,China's agricultural production has attracted worldwide attention.In recent years,China's agricultural trade has been increasing,and agricultural trade has become an important part of China's trade.Since the "Belt and Road" initiative was put forward in 2013,trade cooperation between the countries along the "Belt and Road" and China has increased significantly.However,in recent years,China's agricultural trade deficit has continued to expand,and its trade development has been relatively unbalanced.The situation is very grim.This is mainly due to the regional agglomeration of China's agricultural products exports,the single export varieties,the low competitiveness of China's agricultural products trade,and the terms of trade are not optimistic.Therefore,China needs to reposition the market and open up new channels to cope with the development of the agricultural product market in order to achieve the healthy and orderly development of agricultural products.This article focuses on China 's calculation of agricultural trade potential of the countries along the "Belt and Road",studies the influencing factors that affect trade potential,and makes recommendations based on specific analysis.Specifically,this article uses the international market competitiveness and the explicit comparative advantage index to measure China's trade competitiveness,and then constructs a stochastic frontier gravity model to analyze China's agricultural trade potential of countries along the "Belt and Road".First,this article analyzes the current status of agricultural trade between China and the "Belt and Road",and then selects trade data from both sides from 2002 to 2017 to analyze the current status of China and 52 trading countries along the "Belt and Road".From an export perspective,From the perspective of imports and total imports and exports,the current situation of agricultural products is analyzed from the perspective of total agricultural products,the structure of major agricultural product varieties,and the structure of agricultural product subdivisions.The results show that:First,although China's agricultural product trade has increased continuously in recent years,agricultural products have been in a deficit state.Second,there is an agglomeration phenomenon in China's agricultural exports.China's exports are mainly concentrated in category 0 and 2 agricultural products.Third,there is agglomeration in the export target countries of agricultural products,mainly in Southeast Asia and Eastern Europe,while China's exports to East Asia,Central Asia,and West Asia and North Africa are very small.Secondly,this article calculated the international trade competitiveness of China and the countries along the route,and found that compared with the whole country along the route,China has lower international competitiveness in agricultural products,and it is necessary to further strengthen the export of Chinese agricultural products.Third,by constructing a stochastic frontier gravity model,it was found that the economic scale of the two countries,the size of their populations,free trade agreements,currency freedom,trade freedom,and the "Belt and Road" initiative have promoted the export of agricultural products.Distance and political stability have hindered the export of agricultural products.Finally,this paper measures the trade efficiency,trade potential and expansion space of 52 countries along the "Belt and Road",It is found that the greater the efficiency of China's agricultural product export trade with 52 countries along the route,the less trade potential and room for expansion.According to the above statistical analysis and empirical analysis,the paper puts forward some suggestions.It mainly includes:increasing the promotion of the "Belt and Road" initiative;strengthening technological innovation;expanding the economic scale and improving the transportation system;establishing a sound free trade agreement and other measures. |
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