Research On The Potential Of Agricultural Products Trade Between China And The "One Belt And One Road" Countries

The Silk Road is an important ancient trade route.Specifically it is a major agricultural trade channel across Europe,Asia and Africa,where silk,tea,spices and fur are the main trade commodities.During visit to Central Asia in September 2013,General Secretary Xi Jinping delivered an important speech entitled "Promoting Friendship among the People and Creating a Better Future" at Nazarbayev University in Kazakhstan.He put forward for the first time the great proposal to build a "Silk Road Economic Belt" together.At this point,the ancient Silk Road trade of agricultural products has ushered in a great opportunity for great revival.The economic development level of many countries along the"One Belt and Road" varies greatly,there is a great difference in the endowments of agricultural resources,and the development of agricultural products trade has great potential.At present the development of China's agricultural products trade is unbalanced.Export agricultural products are constantly affected by international market trade barriers and market access.The trade costs of imported agricultural products remain high for a long time.The situation of agricultural products trade is very serious.Faced with the prevailing trade protectionism since the financial crisis,the "One Belt and One Road" trade in agricultural products will open up a new trade channel.It is a great theoretical and practical significance to carry out the measurement of the potential agricultural products trade between China and "One Belt and One Road" countries,analyze the factors affecting trade potential,and put forward the countermeasures to realize the potential of agricultural products trade.Based on the trade competitiveness index,gravity model,related research methods and existing research results,the article constructs a general analysis framework for the potential of agricultural products trade between China and the "One Belt and One Road" countries.In accordance with the "Status Quo and Evolution" of China's agricultural trade potential along the "One Belt and One Road","Theoretical inference and potential measurement","Research on the influencing factors" and "Implementation methods and policy implications" four aspects are gradually studied.In order to thoroughly study the evolution characteristics of China's agricultural products import and export trade along the "One Belt and One Road" area in the past 2001-2016 years,the article analyzes the differences of agricultural products cooperation between China and the "One Belt and One Road" countries.Data show that China's agricultural exports have basically recovered to the highest level before the financial crisis of last years,import is still on the decline from the domestic economic impact.Moreover,despite the rapid development of trade in agricultural products between China and the"One Belt and One Road" countries,there is a growing trend.However,the trade status of the two sides is unequal,China has a large trade deficit and this deficit has a growing trend.In addition,the article analyzes the characteristics of the geographical structure and trade flow of agricultural products of China and the "One Belt and One Road" countries,it finds that the trade volume of agricultural products between China and all the other countries along "One Belt and One Road" has a rising tendency,among the main growth areas are Northeast Asia and Southeast Asian countries.From the trade commodity structure,China's agricultural trade with the "One Belt and One Road" countries is relatively concentrated in a few categories of products(the 03 and 05 chapters).In order to measure the potential of agricultural products trade between China and the "One Belt and One Road" countries,the article explains from three aspects:international market share,comprehensive RCA index and classified RCA index.From the perspective of international market share from 2001 to 2016,China's international market share of agricultural products increased rapidly and the competitiveness of agricultural products in the international market increased significantly.The international market share of agricultural products in Northeast Asia has maintained steady growth over the last 16 years and their competitiveness is general.The international market share of agricultural products in Southeast Asian countries is growing steadily and the international competitiveness of agricultural products has been continuously improved.Because the Central Asian countries are located in the inland region,coupled with the backward domestic economy,mainly import a small amount of agricultural products in trade.Therefore,the international market share of agricultural products in Central Asian countries is very low.After decades of development,the share of agricultural products in South Asian countries has gradually increased,but it is still lower than the "One Belt and One Road" countries.In other countries,the international competitiveness of agricultural products needs to be improved.After more than ten years of development in Central and Eastern Europe,the international market share of agricultural products has been greatly improved and has surpassed Southeast Asia to become the largest agricultural trade area along the "One Belt and One Road" countries.Although the international market share of West Asia and Middle East has increased in last years,the international competitiveness of agricultural products is increasing.However,due to the scarcity of natural resources in West Asia and Middle East and the backwardness of domestic economy and production technology,the competitiveness of agricultural products in the international market has not been greatly improved.In terms of the specific value of trade competitiveness index RCA,in the past 16 years,the comprehensive RCA index of China's agricultural products has been improving continuously,but there is no big breakthrough.It can be seen that although China is a big agricultural trade country,the overall competitiveness of agricultural products is not strong,in the general level of trade.The RCA index of agricultural products in Southeast Asia ranged from 1.25 to 2.5 in the past 16 years,showing a strong international competitiveness as a whole.The RCA index of central and Eastern European countries ranked first in the "One Belt and One Road" countries,while the RCA index of agricultural products in South Asia,Central Asia,Western Asia and the Middle East has been in a doldrum for a long time and agricultural products are basically not competitive.Taking into account the limitations of the traditional gravity model,in order to further measure the potential trade of agricultural products between China and the "One Belt and One Road" countries.the article considers the establishment of an extended trade gravity model to measure the optimal level of agricultural trade determined by natural factors and analyze the influencing factors of trade efficiency.The results show that the GNP is significantly positive;the import tariff level is significantly negative;the population scale variable coefficient is significantly positive;the geographic distance variable coefficient is significantly negative;Whether they have common boundary variables are significantly positive;the market openness variable coefficient is significantly positive.To explore the potential of China's agricultural trade potential along "One Belt and One Road" countries,the article calculates the corresponding forecast trade value based on the regression results of the trade gravity model(T'),and calculates the ratio of the real trade value(T)to the predicted trade value(T'),so that the potential coefficient of bilateral trade can be obtained.The potential trade coefficient of bilateral trade can reflect the trade potential of the two countries very well.The concrete results show that China's trade potential of agricultural products along the "One Belt and One Road" can be divided into the following three categories.First of all,the agricultural trade between China and Northeast Asia's Russia and Mongolia belongs to potential development;and Japan's agricultural products trade belongs to the potential in modeling.Agricultural trade between China and 13 countries in Central and Eastern Europe,including Poland,Belarus,Czech Republic,Hungary,Croatia,Bulgaria and Macedonia,belongs to potential expansion type.Agricultural trade with Slovakia,Slovenia,Montenegro,Ukraine,Albania and Romania belongs to huge potential.In the trade of agricultural products between China and 8 countries in Southeast Asia,except Brunei,the trade of agricultural products is great potential,agricultural products trade with other 7 countries belong to the trade development type.Agricultural trade between China and Iran,Jordan,Israel,Yemen,the United Arab Emirates,Qatar,Egypt,Georgia and Armenia among the 14 Middle East countries belongs to the potential development type,agricultural trade with Turkey,Saudi Arabia,Kuwait and Palestine is of great potential,and agricultural trade with Oman is of potential recycling.Agricultural trade between China and 5 Central Asian countries,Kazakhstan.Kyrgyzstan,Tajikistan,belongs to the potential development type;agricultural trade cooperation with Uzbekistan belongs to the potential reconstruction type.and agricultural trade cooperation with Turkmenistan belongs to the potential huge type.Agricultural trade between China and 6 South Asian countries,Pakistan,Bangladesh and Afghanistan,belongs to the potential development type;agricultural trade with India and Bhutan belongs to the huge potential type;agricultural trade with Nepal belongs to the potential reconstruction type.According to the theoretical research and empirical analysis,the article puts forward some policy suggestions for the realization the potential of agricultural products trade between China and the "One Belt and One Road" countries:to do a good basic work in China,simultaneous reformation and removal of restrictions;to continue the promotion of the "One Belt and One Road" construction,to strengthen trade cooperation of agricultural products between China and along the "One Belt and One Road" countries,to implement strategic regulation based on the market potential of China in relation to the pattern of export-import markets,to establish more perfect,comprehensive trade cooperation and trade agreement;to improve the trade pattern of agricultural products between China and the "One Belt and Road" countries,to look for bilateral advantages and promote the expansion of export scale of agricultural products.