Research On Export Potential Of China's Furniture To Countries Along "The Belt And Road" Based On Association Rules And Trade Gravity Models

The furniture industry in china has developed rapidly while facing the huge demand of the international market since the reform and opening up.Nevertheless,China's furniture exports still face some problems.On the aspect of global situation,more advantageous emerging countries are grabbing China's original market share which cause increasing international competitiveness and trade barriers are another important constraint.On the aspect of the furniture industry itself inside China,problems such as uneven export product structure and excessively concentrated export markets existing.With the proposal of the 'Belt and Road' initiative,both opportunities and challenges have come to China's furniture export trade development.Guided by the theory of system science,comparative advantage and factor endowment,this study,from the perspective of product structure,uses Apriori algorithm to mine the association rules between the export volume and export types of furniture products,and explores the demand characteristics of international market for Chinese furniture in product structure.Gravity models are used to measure China's trade potential for furniture exports from countries along the "Belt and Road".Based on the analysis of the structure of furniture export products,specific development suggestions are made for market development in countries with different potentials.The research results show that there is a clear correlation between the export volume of different types of furniture products.In the material layer,there are strong association rules between furniture made of other materials and bamboo/rattan furniture or metal furniture,and between bamboo/rattan furniture and stone furniture.There are strong association rules among office furniture,other purpose furniture and furniture parts in use layer.The total economic volume,population size,exchange rate,furniture production,whether it is a WTO with China,whether it is a landlocked country,or whether it borders China has a significant impact on China's furniture exports.The 'Belt and Road' countries or regions are of the 'potential development' type.There are 25,14 and 32 potentially huge,potential development and potential re-engineering countries respectively.Central Asia,South Asia and Eastern Europe are all huge potential regions and have great potential for exploitation.Finally,on the basis of summarizing the full text,from the three perspectives of product structure association,step promotion of different types of trade potential countries and government guarantee measures,this paper puts forward some suggestions for China to develop the export potential of national furniture along the 'Belt and Road' in order to promote Chinese furniture to meet the needs of the international market for Chinese furniture product structure and better develop the "Belt and Road" international market.Against the background of sluggish global economic growth and the complex circumstances facing the economies of countries around the world,China's economic development has also entered an important strategic development stage.China's unique strategic concept of the 'Belt and Road' has provided external driving force for accelerating China's economic transformation.Present study uses association rule mining algorithm and trade gravity model to study the potential of China's furniture export to countries along the 'Belt and Road' starting from the structure of furniture export products,which will help to develop the potential of China's furniture export to the 'Belt and Road'countries and expand the international market of the 'Belt and Road' countries.