Research On The Wheat Protential Yield And Its Influential Factors

China’s problems of grain and it’s future supplies trend has become the focus attention of the scholars both at home and abroad. China is a country with large population and it is in the period of industrialization. Along with the acceleration economy, population and urbanization, the land resources will be more and more reduced and food supply problem will become more and more expensive. With this background, to ensure the food supply mainly depend on the improvement of yield. The wheat is one of the main food crops of our country.in the total food-grain consumption, wheat occupies43%.so increase or maintain the wheat output is very important to ensure the food supply of our country. Shandong province is an important wheat-growing area and wheat export region in china, it has stable wheat supplying ability, complete planting system and sophisticated plant experience. In the past decades of years, the yield of wheat of Shandong province came up to336.2kg/mu.82.4kg higher than the national average.on the case of the situation of developing wheat production in Shandong province, The paper focuses on the effects of the Potential yield of the wheat. The analysis result is important to master the nature of the yield of wheat and guide the wheat cultivation.The increase of grain yield mainly depends on two factors:the increase in sown area of grain and the increase of the yield of wheat. With the development of our national economy, the population are increasing quickly, Industrialization and urbanization process are accelerating, farmland of average per capita will continue to fall, it will be more and more difficult to increase the food production by expanding the acreage sown in grain crops.To increase the food production could only be by enhancing the yield level. Taking Shandong Province as an example, the paper research the factors of the wheat yield systematically. First, regarded the natural factors, variety factors, production conditions and technical measures as one class index, the evaluation index model is set up. By the way of expert evaluation method, make out every index-weight with analytic hierarchy process. Second, choosing consumption of chemical fertilizers, application rate of pesticides, motive power of agricultural machinery, the input of workforce and the rate of irrigated area as argument from the production conditions and technical measures. The paper use the method of Cobb Douglas production model to calculate the elasticity of different factors. The third, according to the production function model, the paper forecasted the yield of wheat of Shandong province in the future. the results show that the yield of wheat of Shandong province can achieve552.35kg/mu,28.24%increase over2009.Based on the research findings, suggestions were proposed to increase the yield of wheat in Shandong province, such as value the breed improvement and extension, perfect the construction of irrigation and water conservancy, strengthen agricultural technical promotion, improve labor force quality, adjust agriculture to produce structural, and realize the scale-up production.