Research On Risk Identification And Transmission Path Of Government Participation In PPP Project

PPP(Public-Private Partnership)is a long-term cooperative relationship between the government and the social capital parties through tenders and bids,using the contract as the main legal basis and benefit sharing and risk sharing for the provision of public services.Since 2014,China has set off a new round of PPP wave,and the government's participation in PPP projects is a distinctive feature of this round of PPP wave.Internationally,there is a precedent for the operation of government-owned infrastructure projects.The third sector established in Japan in the 1960 s was jointly invested by the government and the private sector to participate in the investment and construction of infrastructure and public services.However,since the mid-1990 s,large-scale operating losses and bankruptcies have occurred in the third sector that has developed over the past 30 years,prompting the Japanese government to re-establish the management system of the third sector through more than 10 years of thorough reform,gradually Change its loss situation.The new round of PPP projects in my country is very similar to the third sector in Japan,and both belong to the "joint venture +cooperation" model.Therefore,it is necessary to thoroughly study the risks and transmission paths of government participation in PPP projects in my country.Based on the above background,this paper first conducts an in-depth analysis of the risks of the third sector in Japan,summarizes the risk factors of the third sector,and then through the literature survey method and the Delphi method to initially identify the risk factors of government participation in PPP projects,and finally obtains 31 government shares Risk factors,including 5 new risk factors from the third sector example.Secondly,a survey questionnaire was designed based on these 31 risk factors and a large-scale investigation was conducted.Based on the valid data recovered and the risk importance formula,the risk score was calculated and ranked,and 16 “highly important” risks were obtained,and the risks fordifferent equity participation intervals After identification and comparison,it was found that each stock participation interval faces different degrees of risk,and each risk has a different impact on different stock participation intervals.Finally,the system dynamics method is used to explore the transmission path of risk factors,and the three risk importance scores of "improper distribution of responsibilities,rights and obligations","fuzzy distribution of risks in contracts" and "imperfect information transmission channels" are found at 4 points The above “highly important” risk transmission path emphasizes the importance of the project company's organizational structure,and on the basis of borrowing from the third sector's risk resolution,proposes corresponding control measures for the identified important risks and risk transmission paths.The research results of this paper further enrich the theoretical research in the field of PPP project risk,provide reference for risk management in practice for PPP projects with government participation,and help in the implementation of the project.