Quantitative Study Of The Impact Of Delayed Retirement On The Sustainable Payment Capability Of China's Pensions

In recent years,China's pension sustainable payment ability has attracted much attention.And it is affected by the growing trend of population aging and lower retirement age,which has caused the pension payment burden to become more serious.At the same time,compared with other countries whose development level is similar to that of China,China's current legal retirement age is still at a relatively low level.Therefore,no matter from an international perspective or from the perspective of China's socioeconomic level at this stage,we should make necessary reforms on the legal retirement age policy as soon as possible.However,there is much controversy about the promotion and implementation of the delayed retirement policy.The effectiveness of this policy in reducing the pension gap in China needs further verification.First of all,This dissertation makes a brief introduction to the current basic endowment insurance system and its operation in China,and conducts a qualitative analysis based on the relevant theoretical basis.Then,by selecting the Leslie matrix model which can take into account the age structure of the population to predict the population,and then the data of the paying and receiving population required in the pension calculation process is obtained.Based on the data of the insured,the pension income and expenditure under the current policy and after adding different delayed retirement policies are measured,so as to explore the effect of different schemes on the sustainable payment capacity of pensions.The results of the study show that: First,whether under the current policy or implementing different delayed retirement policies,there will be no gaps in the personal accounts of urban employees' basic pension insurance during the forecast period.Second,there is a gap in the calculation of the current policy's pool account pension and it is gradually increasing.In addition,no matter what kind of delayedretirement scheme,the pool account gap can not be completely resolved in the calculation period,but it has been alleviated to varying degrees.Third,compared with Scheme 1 and Scheme 2,it can be seen that when the speed of delayed retirement set by the schemes are different,the faster the scheme,the better the effect of sustainable pension payment capacity.Fourth,compared with the trend of increasing the current pension gap in the pool account of Scheme 1 in the current period,the calculation results of Scheme 3 show a fluctuation trend within a small range.Therefore,when the speed of delay is the same as the start time,the longer the delay period,the more effective it is to enhance the sustainable payment capacity of pensions.Fifth,when the speed and number of years of delayed retirement are the same,impact of men on the sustainable ability to pay for pensions is higher than that of women.However,in consideration of gender equity,assuming that the age of delayed retirement for both men and women is set to Sixty-five years old,the effect of women on sustainable pension payment capacity is higher than that of men.Therefore,suggestions are made.First,to clarify the plan as soon as possible,and to increase publicity.Second,it is suggested to implement the gradual scheme.The third is to maintain fairness,and retirement of men and women at the same age is more conducive to eliminating pressure on pension payments.The fourth is to take into account personal benefits,and to increase the standard of pension payments reasonably while extending the age.Fifth,the delayed retirement scheme is still not clear.Another part of the reason may be that there are differences in the content of work,and Some employees in the labor-intensive work industry will be inconsistent with the implementation of the new policy.Therefore,in the process of studying the new policy,it is also necessary to flexibly formulate a progressive plan for the differences in the industry,taking full account of the special posts and appropriately combining the "flexible system",and such as setting a reasonable choice of retirement age for different positions.