| In recent years,The production of live pig has frequently broken out influenza,hog cholera,foot-and-mouth disease and other animal diseases,which has brought a huge impact to the pig industry,and has a growing impact on the economy,society and people's livelihood.The data show that the economic loss caused by epidemic disease in China is as high as billions or even tens of billions every year,the frequent outbreak of pig epidemic situation weakens the market competitiveness of animal husbandry in China,and the fluctuation of pig price caused by the outbreak period has a negative impact on both supply and demand.This paper studies the relationship between the epidemic situation and the price fluctuation of live pigs,combs the major epidemic situation in recent years,and sums up the influence and correlation of the major epidemic situation on the price and fluctuation of live pigs Characteristics,and based on the monthly data for 2017-2019,through the empirical analysis of pig prices and pig epidemic width index to establish a VAR model,the main conclusions obtained are as follows :(1)usually major outbreaks will cause large fluctuations in pig prices,and each pig price cycle inflection point is closely related to the epidemic;(2)the impact of African swine fever on price volatility is different from previous outbreaks,the impact of price volatility cycle significantly extended,replacing frequent volatility is persistent high prices,and prices once to historical high;(3)The epidemic is the Granger reason of pig prices,at the same time,the epidemic situation shows a certain lag when affecting the price of live pigs;(4)the impulse response function of the epidemic situation to the price of live pigs shows that the evidence of convergence only appears after 12 cycles of the epidemic situation.According to the above research results,this paper puts forward the following policies to deal with the impact of epidemic situation and stabilize the price of live pigs :(1)strengthen the construction of disease prevention and control system in pig market;(2)establish market information release platform;(3)increase the support of pig industry;(4)strengthen the construction of veterinary team and other suggestions,with a view to promoting the healthy and orderly development of pig industry. |
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