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Improvement Of The Compilation Of CPI While The House Prices Is Rasing

Posted on:2020-04-06Degree:MasterType:Thesis
Country:ChinaCandidate:J ZouFull Text:PDF
GTID:2439330620457612Subject:Public Administration
Abstract/Summary:PDF Full Text Request
Chinese CPI compilation has been adjusted and improved many times,try to reflect the operation of the real economy in a better way,but there is still a certain gap with the international CPI compilation standard.Specifically,Chinese CPI compilation has various defects such as without variance valuation,the representative rotation rate is too low,weight adjustment at a low frequency,low residential weight,and without housing prices.These defects have led to repeated doubts about the authenticity and international comparability of Chinese CPI.Especially under the background of rapid economic development in our country,the price of the housing market reached new highs in recent years,residential housing consumption expenditure is rising,However,the CPI,which represents the consumer price trend,has remained stable for a long time,that differs from with the people's psychological feelings about the price.,which will invites the society to doubt the authenticity of the CPI.When the price index is seriously underestimated,it will affect the government's formulation of macro-adjustment policies and result in deviation on regulating the operation of the market economy.This paper focuses on the relationship between house price and price under the background of the sharp rise in house price,and puts forward some suggestions for improving the compilation of price index.Firstly,it theoretically analyzes the impact of the housing market price changes on the price index,and proves that the price index is seriously underestimated due to the compilation of defects while the housing prices is rising.From the perspective of price composition,prices should directly reflect the price changes of residents' housing consumption.However,due to the defects of index compilation,the current price adoption is actually the price change of rent,rather than the price change of the housing market,resulting in the distortion of the price index?From the perspective of the operation of market economy,the rising price of the housing market will produce wealth effect,credit expansion and magnify leverage to promote consumer consumption and affect the price rise.However,due to the shortcomings of the index compilation,the CPI remained stable and did not rise significantly.From the perspective of input and output,if the housing market increase the investment,the price will increase in other industries,and ultimately push prices up,but the current price index is stable for a long time.Secondly,using the data of Yichang's HPI and CPI in recent years,through empirical research,it is proved that the two are highly correlated,and the rapid rise in house prices will lead to rapid rise of price.Through theoretical and empirical research,it is found that in the context of a sharp rise in housing prices,the price increase in the real estate market will be transmitted to the consumer market,resulting in a sharp rise in the price index.In view of the actual situation of Yichang,the sharp rise in house prices in the past three years will push up the price level.Due to the defects in the current index compilation,the CPI statistics have remained stable for a long time,which is inconsistent with the actual situation,and the index compilation method should be improved as soon as possible.Propose an improved method for the compilation of price indices.First of all,based on the current high housing ownership rate in China,we should promptly increase the weight of housing and adjust the weight of residence.Improve the current calculation method of residence weight,and obtain accurate residence weight data by expanding the sampling range and obtaining administrative data.Secondly,improve the price survey method of residential classification.The price of self-owned housing should reflect the trend of real estate market price,expand the sample size,use big data and other channels to improve the accuracy of price data,normative the method of rent and self-owned housing price collection and calculation,and reduce the data error caused by calculation.In addition,improving the index compilation method of HPI is also convenient for assisting and explaining CPI and other indicators.Finally,relevant departments should organize forces to carry out CPI compilation improvement and publicity and interpretation work.
Keywords/Search Tags:HPI, CPI, index compilation, weight, housing consumption, underestimate data
PDF Full Text Request
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