Analysis Of China-Vietnam Trade Relations And Its Influencing Factors

China and Vietnam are adjacent to each other with complementary elements and resources,and there has been a long history of their bilateral trade.After the normalization of China-Vietnam relations in 1991,China-Vietnam exchanges and cooperation in the political,economic,and cultural fields resumed and developed rapidly.Thanks to the continuous development of China-Vietnam relations,the total trade volume between China and Vietnam has increased rapidly and the scale of trad has been continuously expanded.In 2008,China and Vietnam formally established a comprehensive strategic cooperative partnership,which created conditions for China and Vietnam to enrich their trade forms and expand their trade areas.The full launch of the CAFTA on January 1,2010,and the construction of the "two corridors and one lap" and the "Belt and Road" are both opportunities and challenges for bilateral trade between China and Vietnam.The development of bilateral trade between China and Vietnam is deeply affected by the political relations between China and Vietnam.Since the normalization of China-Vietnam relations in 1991,China and Vietnam have made great achievements in bilateral trade.Vietnam has become China's largest trading partner in ASEAN,and Vietnam is also China's eighth largest trading partner in the world.However,China and Vietnam still have many problems in terms of trade relations,trade structure,and product competition.Although the relations between China and Vietnam were normalized in 1991,the exchanges and cooperation between China and Vietnam in the political,economic,and cultural fields have continued to deepen.However,due to historical reasons,territorial disputes,and the involvement of extraterritorial forces,China and Vietnam have been experiencing constant friction in the political field in recent years.The lack of mutual political trust casts a shadow over the further development of China-Vietnam trade relations.2020 is the 70 th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between China and Vietnam.Therefore,how to promote the development of China-Vietnam bilateral trade relations to a higher level has become one of the important topics for discussion ofChina-Vietnam economic and trade relations.In order to analyze the trade relationship between China and Vietnam and its influencing factors,this article will elaborate from the following four aspects:The first is to have a comprehensive understanding of the status and problems of bilateral trade between China and Vietnam through a review of related theories and research;Secondly,objectively analyze the problems existing in bilateral trade between China and Vietnam by calculating the comprehensive trade complementation index,explicit comparative advantage,and export similarity index between China and Vietnam;Third,because the development of China-Vietnam trade relations is deeply affected by the political relations between China and Vietnam,in order to more intuitively reflect the influence of political factors on China-Vietnam bilateral trade,this article will use the relevant knowledge of evolutionary game theory to build a game model and bring political factors into the evolutionary game models;Fourth,by analyzing the results of China-Vietnam bilateral trade relations and the evolutionary game model,valuable policy suggestions are proposed to enhance China-Vietnam trade relations.There are five main parts in this article: The first chapter,the introduction,elaborates the research background,research significance,related research of domestic and foreign scholars on bilateral trade between China and Vietnam,and summarizes the research framework,research methods,innovations and deficiencies of this article.Chapter Two reviews the history of China-Vietnam trade,calculates the China-Vietnam trade index(comprehensive trade complementation index,explicit comparative advantage,and trade complementation index),and sorts out the changes in China-Vietnam foreign trade policy.Vietnam's bilateral trade status and policies are analyzed.In Chapter 3,find out the main problems of China-Vietnam bilateral trade(China-Vietnam bilateral trade imbalance,China has a long-term surplus;trade dependence declines,and Vietnam's dependence on Chinese goods),the reasons,and analyze these main issues for China-Vietnam trade Impact of relationships.Chapter IV uses the relevant knowledge of evolutionary game theory to construct an evolutionary game model of China-Vietnam trade and brings key factors such as tariff costs,upfront inputcosts,and political factors into the model for simulation analysis.The evolutionary game model is used to analyze tariff costs and upfront input costs.How key factors such as political factors affect China-Vietnam trade relations.Chapter V:A rational approach to gradually easing the trade imbalance between China and Vietnam,adjusting and optimizing the structure of trade goods,innovating China-Vietnam trade cooperation methods,improving the level of trade facilitation,strengthening infrastructure construction,continuing to implement preferential policies to reduce tariffs,and strengthening mutual political trust to properly handle the South China Sea issue and other aspects,it has put forward policy suggestions on deepening bilateral trade cooperation between China and Vietnam and promoting the development of China-Vietnam trade relations.China-Vietnam trade relations are deeply affected by political relations,but it is difficult to directly reflect the influence of political factors on China-Vietnam relations when performing calculation analysis using related models of econometric.Moreover,the trade between China and Vietnam is essentially a game between China and Vietnam in the field of trade for their interests.In consideration of the above two points,in order to be able to analyze the key factors affecting China-Vietnam bilateral trade,this paper will combine the relevant knowledge of evolutionary game theory and creatively bring political factors into the evolutionary game model to analyze the key factors affecting China-Vietnam bilateral trade.Factors and put forward policy suggestions on enhancing China-Vietnam trade cooperation.