| In June 2018,the Trump administration announced that it would impose tariffs on US$50 billion of Chinese products.The tax coverage of manufacturing industries that compete with the United States exceeded 70%.Among them,labor-intensive and hightech industries are the key sanctions.According to the existing literature analysis,the reasons for the United States to launch a trade war are mainly to contain the development of China's emerging industries and solve the domestic employment problem in the United States.Few articles analyze the formation and even intensification of Sino-US economic and trade frictions,which eventually lead to trade wars,using the complementary changes in the manufacturing industries of China and the United States as the starting point.Since the Sino-US manufacturing trade structure is determined by the industrial structure,this article takes the industry behind the trade as a perspective,examines the interaction rules between the Sino-US manufacturing industries,and explores the relationship between the complementary changes in the Sino-US manufacturing industries and economic and trade frictions.Based on the logical relationship between the two,it provides suggestions for the development of China's manufacturing industry.This paper analyzes the scale and structure of Sino US manufacturing economy and trade.From the perspective of the scale and structure of Sino US foreign trade in manufacturing industry,from 2000 to 2018,the scale of Sino US foreign trade in manufacturing industry developed rapidly,and China's export surplus to us manufacturing industry showed an increasing trend.From 2000 to 2008,the competitive advantage of China's manufacturing industry was concentrated in low tech labor-intensive areas,while that of the United States was concentrated in high-tech capital technology intensive areas.After 2010,the commodity structure of China's manufacturing industry has undergone a "qualitative" change,and the export scale of China's high-tech manufacturing products has expanded.While maintaining the proportion of exports to the United States,the world's dependence on China's capital and technology intensive products has increased.From the perspective of the scale and structure of China US direct investment in manufacturing industry,from 1980 to 2000,China's direct investment in manufacturing industry in the United States has not yet formed a scale.From 2000 to 2008,the direct investment in manufacturing industry of China and the United States has a clear unidirectional trend,and the growth rate of China's investment flow in manufacturing industry of the United States has little fluctuation.From 2010 to 2018,the growth of China's investment in manufacturing industry in the United States accelerated,and the distribution of direct investment industries expanded from traditional processing manufacturing industry to high-tech manufacturing industry,but its proportion in the flow of foreign direct investment in the United States was low,and the direct investment in manufacturing industry in China and the United States changed from one-way to two-way.An analysis of the complementarity of Sino-US manufacturing industries before the financial crisis.First of all,from the perspective of the formation of the complementary nature of the Chinese and American manufacturing industries,through the construction of a manufacturing industry isomorphism index,it is found that the industrial structure of the Chinese and American manufacturing industries is obviously different,the complementarity is strong,and the areas for direct substitution or competition are limited.This difference stems from the differences in the internal structure of the manufacturing industries in China and the United States and the different stages of economic development between China and the United States.Secondly,from the perspective of the conditions for the formation of Sino-US manufacturing industry complementarity,Sino-US manufacturing direct investment affects the changes in the industrial structure of the investing country and promotes the adjustment of the host country's industrial structure through the transfer effect of the traditional manufacturing industry and the promotion effect of the emerging manufacturing industry.And optimization,at the same time,through technology spillover effect,capital accumulation effect,trade complementation effect,promote the generation of Sino-US trade deficit.In Sino-US trade,the manufacturing industry is dominated by vertical industrial division of labor,and the US trade terms are generally better than those of China.Secondly,through the trade complementarity index(TCI)and the intra-industry trade index(IIT),the empirical analysis of the manufacturing industry complementarity in Sino-US trade is carried out.From 2000 to 2008,the manufacturing industries in Sino-US trade are highly complementary.Among them,industries with strong complementarity are concentrated in textiles,footwear products,furniture products,metal and products,transportation equipment,aircraft,aircraft,electronic precision instruments and equipment.Labor-intensive and capitaltechnology-intensive industries such as parts and components.At this stage,the increase in trade comes from inter-industry trade.Intra-industry trade is mainly vertical,and only some manufacturing industries belong to horizontal intra-industry trade.From2009 to 2018,the complementarity of manufacturing industries in Sino-US trade has weakened,and industries with a decline in complementarity are concentrated in the textile,clothing and leather industries,wood processing(except furniture),and wood,bamboo,rattan,palm,and straw products.Labor-intensive and capital-technologyintensive industries such as computer,electronic and optical equipment manufacturing,furniture products and other manufacturing industries.At this stage,the increase in trade comes from intra-industry trade,and the type of intra-industry trade has developed from vertical to horizontal.Finally,based on the background of the complementary effects of globalization,due to the differences in the market environment and industrial policies of the two countries,the complementarity of manufacturing industries in SinoUS trade is advancing with the deepening of international division of labor,the transnational transfer of industries,and the development of global value chains.And promote the economic development of China and the United States.An analysis of the competitiveness of the Chinese and American manufacturing industries after the US "reindustrialization" strategy.First of all,from the basis of the formation of the competitiveness of the manufacturing industries in China and the United States,the construction of an index of industrial structure isomorphism found that the trend of similarity in the industrial structure of the manufacturing industry in China and the United States appeared,and it was close to the trend of convergence in the industrial structure of the German and American manufacturing industries.This trend of convergence is reflected in the changes in the internal structure of the Chinese and American manufacturing industries.After 2010,the degree of overlap between the Chinese and American manufacturing industries in high-tech fields has increased,forming competition and potential competition with multiple industries in the United States.Secondly,from the perspective of the conditions for the formation of the competitiveness of the Chinese and American manufacturing industries,the direct investment in the Chinese and American manufacturing industries affects the market structure of the host country through the competition effect and market concentration effect mechanism.At the same time,it promotes the upgrading of the industrial structure of the host country and the investing country,and improves import and export commodities.Trade Structure.Third,through the Revealed Relative Comparative Advantage Index(VRCA),Michaely Volatility Index(MI),and International Market Share Index(MS),an empirical analysis of the competitiveness of the manufacturing industry in Sino-US trade is conducted.From 2000 to 2009,the overall Sino-US manufacturing trade was mainly complementary,and the trade competitiveness of hightech industries was weak.From 2010 to 2018,China and the U.S.have engaged in lowtech labor-intensive industries such as textiles,wood processing(except furniture),and wood,bamboo,rattan,palm,and straw products industries;low-tech capital-intensive industries such as metal products,The rubber and plastic products industries are competitive.At the same time,they are not competitive in high-tech capital and technology-intensive industries such as other transportation equipment manufacturing(high-speed train and rail vehicle manufacturing),computer,electronic and optical equipment manufacturing(Communications equipment manufacturing),a small number of chemical product manufacturing(nuclear reactors),and a small number of mechanical equipment manufacturing(machinery appliances)have also formed a competitive and potential competitive relationship with the United States.The Chinese and US manufacturing industries are becoming competitive in high-tech industries.Finally,the competitiveness of the manufacturing industry in Sino-US trade is that the scale of R&D investment in China has been increasing year by year,the high-tech manufacturing trade has developed rapidly,the global import and export position of the manufacturing industry has increased,the global raw material market is fiercely competitive,and the international industrial structure has become increasingly homogeneous.,China and the United States have entered a new stage of technological competition..An analysis of the formation mechanism and causes of economic and trade frictions caused by the changes in the complementary trends of the Chinese and American manufacturing industries.First of all,from the perspective of the formation mechanism of trade frictions caused by the changes in the complementary trends of the manufacturing industries in China and the United States,the source of economic and trade frictions caused by the complementary trends in the manufacturing industries of China and the United States lies in the fact that the labor factors in developed countries are inferior resources compared to developing countries.Industries that remain unchanged and are constrained by resources and the environment will increase their costs with the continuous increase in productivity.At the same time,the costs of resources and environmental factors will also increase.At this time,the production costs are greater than the benefits of increased labor productivity.The competitiveness of labor-intensive products of China's manufacturing industry in the U.S.market continues to increase,impacting the market share of relevant domestic companies in the U.S.,resulting in an unbalanced distribution of benefits.The source of the escalation of economic and trade frictions caused by the competitiveness of the manufacturing industries in China and the United States is that when the productivity of the reserved industries in developing countries that do not originally have a comparative advantage increases significantly,the volume of high-tech manufacturing economies in developed countries will be greatly reduced.The stagnation of technological progress in developed countries has led to a bottleneck in productivity.The benefits of cooperation with developing countries are less than the loss of share reduction.At this time,the two countries enter a "conflict" zone,keep industries in a state of competition,and the trend of complementarity and mutual benefit changes.From the perspective of the reasons for the economic and trade frictions caused by the changes in the complementary trends of the manufacturing industries in China and the United States,after the financial crisis,the TFP growth rate of China's manufacturing industry is higher than that of the United States,and the technology competition between China and the United States has entered a new stage.At the same time,the commodity structure of China's exports to the U.S.manufacturing industry has undergone a “qualitative” change.It has shifted from assembled and processed products to high-tech products.The complexity of high-tech export products has increased.The export area has expanded from developed countries to emerging economies.The United States and other countries in the world The country's increased dependence on the export trade of high-tech and high-tech manufacturing products in China's manufacturing industry has impacted the US monopoly in the high-tech field.The trend of complementarity and mutual benefit has changed,and economic and trade frictions continue to escalate.Although the United States has always been in a manufacturing trade deficit,the Sino-U.S.trade imbalance is not only due to the U.S.trade deficit but also the contribution of the profits of multinational corporations.At the same time,there is a big difference between the way that China and the US Department of Commerce counts export trade prices and reexport trade.US statistics on trade in goods overestimate China's trade surplus.Judging from the performance of economic and trade frictions caused by the changes in the complementary trends of the manufacturing industries in China and the United States,leading U.S.reindustrialization industries have become the main targets of the "dual reverse" investigation.Sino-US economic and trade frictions have shifted from laborintensive to technology-intensive fields,and trade protection measures are upgraded to high-end manufacturing.At the same time,the United States has increased investment restrictions on Chinese high-tech manufacturing companies,and high-tech manufacturing companies such as ZTE and Huawei have become key targets of trade sanctions.Finally,the conclusions of this article are summarized,and based on the background of the Sino-US trade war,the government and the enterprise level propose countermeasures for the development of Chinese manufacturing. |
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