Research On Influence Of Sino-US Trade Relations On The Productivity Of China's Manufacturing Industry

Since June 2018,the U.S.has imposed tariffs on $200 billion worth of Chinese imports,and China has taken tough counter-measures against them,and trade relations between the two countries have begun to deteriorate.Based on the fact that this trade friction is mainly aimed at Chinese manufacturing products,and green total factor productivity can measure the development quality of a single industry,this paper studies the impact of Sino-US trade relations on the green all-factor productivity of China's manufacturing industry.The paper first combs the development of Sino-US trade relations,and uses the directional distance function to measure the Green Biennial Malmquist-Luengerber(GBML)productivity index and its decomposition,and analyzes the measured green allfactor productivity(GTFP)of China's manufacturing industry.Then,using the general equilibrium analysis to obtain the mechanism of the impact of Sino-US trade relations on manufacturing productivity,There is a knowledge spillover effect of China-U.S.trade in the development of China's manufacturing industry.Finally,the DSGE model is used to simulate the impact of the deterioration of Sino-US trade relations on China's manufacturing input and output,and to use panel data to verify the impact of the deterioration of Sino-US trade relations on China's manufacturing productivity.The main conclusions of the paper are:(1)The deterioration of Sino-US trade relations has a significant impact on the output,employment,consumption and inflation of China's manufacturing industry.In the short term,output,consumption,employment and real wages will decline rapidly,and the higher the level of tariff severance,the greater the impact on the manufacturing industry;(2)The GTFP of China's manufacturing industry showed an upward trend between 2003 and 2016,and GTFP growth mainly depends on the contribution of changes in efficiency,which is mainly due to the expansion of factor input scale,and technological progress is not obvious.(3)China-U.S.trade relations have an impact on China's manufacturing productivity,China's exports to the U.S.will significantly improve the manufacturing GTFP,and China's imports from the U.S.will not have a significant impact.Investment in research and development in the manufacturing sector will boost the growth of GTFP in the manufacturing sector,while China's direct investment in the U.S.and the investment of industry research and development personnel will hinder the improvement of GTFP in the manufacturing sector.