Reaearch On Trade Potential And Countermeasures Between China And The Five Lancang-Mekong Countries

In the autumn of 2013,Chinese President Xi Jinping put forward the important "The Belt and Road" initiative during a friendly visit to Central and Southeast Asian countries.Six years have passed.The "Belt and Road" initiative has gradually come to fruition from point to line,benefiting more than 100 Countries.On March 23,2016,the first Lancang-Mekong cooperation leaders meeting was successfully held,announcing the official launch of the Lan-Mei cooperation mechanism.This is the first new type of sub-regional cooperation mechanism jointly created by the countries of the Lancang-Mekong Basin(China,Cambodia,Myanmar,Laos,Thailand,and Vietnam),and it is an important platform for joint discussion and construction of the“Belt and Road”.On January 10,2018,Prime Minister Li Keqiang pointed out at the Second Leadership Meeting of Lancang-Mekong Cooperation that Lancang-Mekong Cooperation has become one of the most dynamic and fruitful cooperation mechanisms in the region.Economic Development Belt of Lancang-Mekong Basin is an important strategic open platform with cooperative and innovative thinking.Based on the cooperation between China and the five countries,the thesis uses regional economic integration,comparative advantage theory,and public governance as the support to analyze the trade potential between China and the five countries.By analyzing the trade data between China and the five Lancang-Mekong countries,the characteristics of bilateral trade development are studied from the perspectives of overall,country,and trade structure.The scale of bilateral trade between China and the five Lancang-Mekong countries is generally increasing,and it is showing a rapid growth trend,which is higher than the growth rate of China's foreign trade volume.China's exports to the five Lancang-Mekong countries are mainly manufactured products,especially capital and technology-intensive products.Structural changes have taken place in China's imports from the five Lancang-Mekong countries,and the share of primary products in imports has fallen.The share of capital and technology-intensive products has gradually increased andbecome the main import.However,it is also found through research that trade risks and trade imbalances still exist in the trade cooperation between China and the five countries.Thailand and Vietnam are China's main exporters in the region,with total exports to the two countries accounting for more than 80% of the region's exports.Thailand is China 's main importer in the economic development zone of the Lancang-Mae River Basin,and the proportion of imports once exceeded 80% of China 's total imports to the region.In recent years,trade between China and Vietnam has grown rapidly.Vietnam has become China's largest importer in the region.There is room for optimization of the merchandise trade structure between China and the five Lancang-Mekong countries,and homogeneous competition is severe.By calculating the trade combination index,HM index,industry trade competitiveness index,and industry trade complementarity index,it is found that China's trade with the five Lancang-Mekong countries is both complementary and competitive.The complementarity of trade can be analyzed from the perspectives of combination degree,dependence degree and mutual benefit.In terms of trade combination degree,China has relatively close trade relations with the region,and China plays a more important role in bilateral trade.In terms of dependency,China 's trade dependence on the five countries is generally weak,and the level of trade dependence on China 's five countries is generally greater than China 's trade dependence on the five countries.Symmetry;in terms of trade mutual benefit,China,as an exporter,has strong trade mutual benefits and complementarities in the industrial manufactured goods industry with major exporting countries such as Thailand and Vietnam.The competitiveness of China's trade with the five countries of Lancang-Mekong can be analyzed from the competitiveness of industries and products.China's labor-intensive industries have trade competitiveness,and capital and technology-intensive industries have strong trade competitiveness.Products have obvious trade competitiveness.Analyze the trade cooperation between China and the five Lancang-Mekong countries by calculating the trade combination index,the HM index,the industry trade competitiveness index,and the industry trade complementarity index,and analyze thetrade complementarity between China and the five countries,China has relatively close trade links with the region.China plays a more important role in bilateral trade.In terms of trade dependence,China's trade dependence on the five Lancang-Mekong countries is generally weak.The degree of trade dependence of the five Lancang-Mekong nations on China is generally greater than the degree of trade dependence of China on the five Lancang-Mekong nations,and the degree of trade dependence of the two sides is asymmetric.In terms of trade mutual benefit,China,as an exporter,has strong trade complementarity with the major exporting countries such as Thailand and Vietnam in the industrial manufactured goods industry.From the analysis of the trade competitiveness between China and the five countries of Lancang-Mekong,China has trade competitiveness in labor-intensive products and strong trade competitiveness in capital and technology-intensive products.The five Melan countries have obvious trade competitiveness in primary products.An empirical analysis of China 's trade with the five Lancang-Mekong countries during 1996-2017 by using an extended gravity model.China's GDP,the GDP of the five Lancang-Mekong countries,the population of China,the population of the five Lancang-Mekong countries,geographical distance,the regulatory quality index,the effective RMB exchange rate,whether it is also a member of the WTO,and whether to sign an FTA all significantly affect China's trade flows with the five Lancang-Mekong countries.The potential for trade between China and the five Lancang-Mekong countries is of potential development type,and there is still much room for development.The trade potential of the industrial manufactured goods industry between China and the five Lancang-Mekong countries is a potential development type.According to the division of capital and technology-intensive products and labor-intensive products,capital and technology-intensive products show better trade potential.Therefore,in order to promote the trade cooperation between China and the five Lancang-Mekong countries,the following measures must be taken.At the national level,it is necessary to give full play to the role of the ASEAN cooperation platform,strengthen judicial cooperation,maintain regional stability,and improve the China-Lancang-Mekong Five countries' transportation and logistics network.At the enterprise level,we should increase investment in science and technology,strengthen trade complementarity,and increase the pace for enterprises to go global.