Analysis Of The Potential And Influencing Factors Of Agricultural Export Trade Of Mekong Countries To China

At present,the issue of global trade imbalance is outstanding,and the long-term trade deficit with China has also raised concerns among some countries.The Mekong River Basin is an important cooperative area around China,and the Mekong River Basin countries are also important trading partners of China.In recent years,with the exception of Laos,countries in the region have trade deficits with China.Among them,the trade deficits of Vietnam and Thailand with China have further expanded since 2010.Reducing the trade deficit of the Mekong countries with China and eliminating the worries of all countries are important contents for China to maintain good relations with these countries and promote further cooperation.Agricultural products are an important product exported by the five countries of the Mekong Basin to China,and they are also an important source of foreign exchange earnings for the five countries.With the development of agricultural product trade between China and the Mekong River Basin countries,many problems and challenges have gradually emerged.Effectively solving the agricultural product problems between China and the five Mekong River basin countries,expanding the Mekong River countries' agricultural product exports to China,will help reduce the trade deficit between China and these countries.This study uses relevant international trade theories,establishes a random frontier trade gravity model,and assists with related trade indexes to conduct in-depth research on the factors and potentials of agricultural trade between China and the Mekong Basin countries.The average level of agricultural exports in the world,and the agricultural intensity of Laos,Thailand,and Cambodia in trade with China is lower than the average level of agricultural exports to the world;compared with the Mekong Basin countries,China 's agricultural trade competitiveness is weak;among the five Mekong countries,Myanmar,Laos,Thailand,and Vietnam have strong complementary agricultural trade with China,and Cambodia's agricultural trade with China is slightly weaker;According to the results of the stochastic frontier gravity model,the main factors affecting the agricultural trade between China and the five countries of the Mekong Basin are Mekong countries' GDP,capital distance,population of Mekong countries,whether they are bordered,currency liberalization index of Mekong countries,investment liberalization index,customs clearance time,and tariff level.These factors have shown through empirical analysis that they have a significant impact on China's agricultural trade with Mekong countries,including Mekong countries GDP,capital distance,Mekong countries population,whether they are bordered,Mekong countries currency liberalization index,investment liberalization index has a positive impact on the exports of agricultural products from the Mekong countries to China.Factors such as customs clearance time and tariff levels have a negative impact on the exports of agricultural products from the Mekong countries to China.;and the current “Lan Mekong Cooperation” mechanism has not significantly affected China 's agricultural trade with Mekong Basin countries.The potential types of agricultural products trade between Mekong countries and China are mainly potential development types.This type of countries includes Myanmar,Laos,Cambodia and Vietnam,while Thailand is of great potential.At the same time,this study puts forward specific recommendations for the agricultural trade between China and the Mekong countries: first,the agricultural products of the Mekong countries need to develop towards high added value;second,by strengthening the construction of port infrastructure,simplifying customs clearance procedures,and establishing uniform quarantine inspection standards to improve the efficiency of customs clearance;the third is to further improve the transportation construction between China and the Mekong countries;the fourth is to strengthen allround and comprehensive regional cooperation in the region through multilateral cooperation and border trade.The research hopes to reduce the trade deficit with China of the Mekong Basin countries through the above recommendations,thereby eliminating the concerns of the countries in the region and promoting the cooperation between China and the Mekong Subregion.