Research On The Impact Of Lancang-mekong Countries’ Logistics Performance To The Import And Export Trade In Yunnan

The Lancang-Mekong cooperation mechanism was established in March 2016.It is a new sub-regional economic cooperation mechanism created by China and Myanmar,Laos,Thailand,Cambodia,and Vietnam.It is an important part of the rapid development of the Belt and Road Initiative jointly promoted by China and the countries of the Mekong region.Yunnan Province is a key province for cooperation between China and the Lancang-Mekong countries,and economic and trade cooperation with the five Lancang-Mekong countries has important strategic significance.In recent years,Yunnan has continued to deepen its economic and trade cooperation and mutually beneficial exchanges with the five countries in the Lancang-Mekong regions.However,there are still many problems in the trade between Yunnan Province and the five Lancang-Mekong countries,which has hindered the development of economic and trade cooperation between Yunnan Province and the five Lancang-Mekong countries to a certain extent.Among the factors affecting international trade,the scale of economic development and logistics costs are generally considered to be the most important factors.International logistics can reduce logistics costs,greatly improve the environment for international trade,and provide various convenient conditions for international trade.However,the level of logistics development in Yunnan Province and the five countries in LMC is relatively low,the international transportation speed is slow,the volume is small,and the transportation cost is high.These problems not only affected the development of the logistics industry in Yunnan and the LMC countries,but also restricted the import and export trade between Yunnan and the five countries.Therefore,in the context of LMC is even more necessary to strengthen the cooperation and construction of international logistics between Yunnan Province and the five countries.In 2007,the World Bank formulated the Logistics Performance Index(LPI)based on the results of the global survey,and publicly released comprehensive evaluation indicators of the LPI development levels of various countries.The LPIsurvey data has enriched the logistics statistics index system,effectively made up for the insufficiency of the current logistics statistics,is a landmark indicator of economic growth and national competitiveness,and has laid the foundation for further strengthening the research on the correlation between logistics operations and economic trade.Based on the theory that logistics level affects trade costs and thus trade flows,this paper uses the LPI to describe the development level of logistics in the five Lancang-Mekong countries,and collects the import and export trade volume between Yunnan and the five countries in 2007-2018,and the LPI data of the five Lancang-Mekong countries.First of all,a qualitative analysis of the trade situation between Yunnan Province and the five Lancang-Mekong countries,and the LPI development of the five countries,and the correlation between the both;Then use quantitative methods to conduct empirical analysis,expand the gravity model in trade,introduce the variables such as the performance index of Lancang-Mekong countries,whether there is a common border,and whether they participate in the Lancang-Mekong cooperation.The influence of its various sub-indicators on the import and export trade volume between Yunnan Province and the five Lancang-Mekong countries was studied.The main conclusions drawn from the study are as follows:(1)The overall level of LPI of the five countries in the Lancang-Mekong region is lower than the world average level,and their development is relatively backward;Among the five Lancang-Mekong countries,Thailand and Vietnam have higher LPI,ranking in the top 50 in the world all year round,and logistics development is better;Laos,Myanmar and Cambodia have low LPI and poor logistics levels,which need further development and improvement;Among the sub-indicators of LPI,the efficiency of customs clearance procedures and the quality score of logistics infrastructure are low,and further improvement is needed.(2)The import and export trade volume between Yunnan Province and the five Lancang-Mekong countries and the LPI of the five countries have the same trend,and the correlation coefficient between the two shows a positive correlation.Throughempirical analysis,it is found that the LPI of the five Lancang-Mekong countries has a significant positive impact on the import and export trade volume between Yunnan Province and the five countries;In the regression model of the LPI,for every 1%increase in the LPI of the five Lancang-Mekong countries,the import and export trade volume between Yunnan Province and the five countries will increase by 1.866%.The improvement of the logistics level of the five Lancang-Mekong countries will help the development of trade between Yunnan Province and the five countries.(3)Among the various indicators of the LPI’s several indicators,such as Customs,Infrastructure,Ease for International Shipments,Logistics Services Quality,and Timeliness,will all have a significant positive impact on import and export trade with the five Lancang-Mekong countries.The sub-indicator of Tracking and Tracing has no significant effect on the explanatory variables,and the coefficient is low;Among the impacts of various sub-indicators on the import and export trade volume between Yunnan Province and the five Lancang-Mekong countries,Infrastructure is the most important,followed by Customs and Ease for International Shipments.Each indicator increased by 1%,and the degree of influence on the import and export trade volume of Yunnan Province increased by 1.859%,1.756%,and 1.623% in turn;The lesser degree of influence is Logistics Services Quality and Timeliness.Each 1%increase in these two sub-indicators will increase the import and export trade volume by 1.275% and 1.097%.The degree of influence of each indicator on the import and export trade volume is different.This may be due to the interaction between the indicators,and the greater the impact of a certain sub-indicator on other indicators,the greater the degree of impact on the import and export trade.