Research On The Impact Of Sino-us Trade Friction On Hunan Economy

Since the second quarter of 2018,the United States has announced tariffs on Chinese exports of US$250 billion,accounting for about half of China's current exports to the United States.According to the statistics of US tariffs on China from 1995 to 2016 published by the World Bank,the US tariff rate on China is only 3.8% on average,and the average tariff rate is only 2.9% in the past five years.The tariff increase of 25% is equivalent to the current tariff level.About 8 times,and Hunan Province exported 3.736 billion US dollars to the United States in 2017,accounting for about 15% of the province's total exports.Therefore,it may have a big impact on the economy of Hunan Province.Therefore,the Sino-US trade conflict is studied in Hunan Province.The economic impact has certain realization significance.This paper studies the impact of Sino-US trade conflicts on the economy of Hunan Province from both quantitative and qualitative aspects.By combing the development process of Sino-US trade friction,the paper analyzes the commodities and their characteristics involved in the tariff list between China and the United States,and then analyzes the HTS codes of Hunan and the United States under the HS coding rules to analyze the major industries and products affected.Then through the relevant theoretical analysis of the direct and indirect impacts on Hunan Province,the CGE model is used to simulate the import and export volume price and GDP under the Sino-US trade conflict,and the conclusions are put forward and the relevant validity recommendations are put forward.