Research On The Impact Of Restricted Purchase And Restricted Loan Policy On Default Risk Of Real Estate Listed Companies

In recent years,the real estate bubble economy has been remarkable,and real estate as an important part of the national economy,the healthy and stable development of the real estate market is crucial.In order to ensure the healthy development of the real estate industry,local governments frequently introduce regulatory policies to intervene in the real estate market.The policy of restricting purchases and loans directly intervenes in the purchase of houses by buyers in order to ensure that housing is just needed and curb speculation.Due to the high debt ratio and significant loan amount in the real estate industry,once a default occurs,it will have a significant impact on Banks and other financial systems.Therefore,it is of theoretical and practical significance to study the impact of the purchase and loan limit policy on the default risk of real estate companies.Firstly,the thesis sorts out the related researches of scholars at home and abroad,and summarizes the related research on the risk of default,the policy of restricting purchases and loans,and the relationship between them.On this basis,the thesis introduces the characteristics of the real estate industry,and then defines the default risk of the real estate industry.The KMV model is used to measure the default risk of real estate listed companies.Through the introduction of the evolution of the restrictionrestricted loan policy,this thesis attempts to explore the internal mechanism of the restriction-free loan policy affecting the default risk of real estate listed companies.On the basis of normative research,it analyzes the basic situation of the real estate industry and analyzes the representative cases of real estate industry.The three basic assumptions that affect the default risk of real estate listed companies are proposed.The sample is selected,the basic parameters of the KMV model for measuring default risk are set,and the default probability is obtained through Excel,Matlab,SPSS and other tool software.Through the analysis of the probability of default,the relevant hypotheses are verified and conclusions are drawn.It is found that the introduction and loosening of the purchase and loan limit policy will affect the default risk of listed real estate companies,and the effect of the second purchase and loan limit policy is stronger than that of the first purchase and loan limit policy.Real estate listed companies of different sizes are affected differently by the policy of purchase and loan restriction.The policy of purchase and loan restriction is more conducive to reducing the default risk of large-scale real estate listed companies.Real estate listed companies in different regions are affected differently by the purchase and loan restriction policies,and the influence of the purchase and loan restriction policies on the reduction of default risk of real estate listed companies in eastern regions is more obvious.The innovation of this thesis is reflected in: systematically sorting out the policy of restricting purchases and restricting loans,and discovering the rules governing the real estate industry.By introducing the purchase and loan limit policy for the first time in 2010,loosening the purchase and loan limit policy in 2014,and introducing the purchase and loan limit policy for the second time in 2016,this thesis makes a comparative analysis of the impact of the two purchase and loan limit policies on the default risk of listed real estate companies,as well as the differences in the degree,scale and region.By setting the relevant parameters of the KMV model,it is more suitable for the research object of this theisis,and the risk of default is more accurate.