Research On The Trade Effect Of FTA On China's Agricultural Products

With the slow progress of the WTO's multilateral free trade negotiations,free trade agreements have developed rapidly worldwide in the past two decades.At present,the construction of China's free trade zone is speeding up,since the signing of the China-ASEAN Free Trade Agreement in 2002,China has signed 16 free trade agreements with 24 countries / regions by 2019.The establishment of the free trade zone also brings opportunities and challenges to the import and export of China's agricultural products.It is of great reference significance to expore the trade effect of FTAs signed by China on the import and export of agricultural products in China,and to the next agricultural negotiation and adjustment of FTAs strategy.Firstly,The article introduces the current agricultural product trade between China and FTA partners,and calculates the indicative comparative advantage index and trade integration index between China and FTA partners by using the trade data of agricultural products,thus further indicating the competitiveness and complementarity of agricultural products between China and FTA partners.In addition,the relationship between this index and trade effects is also analyzed.Secondly,the article based on the DID-PSM method from the FTA overall and single situation,to study the import and export trade effects of agricultural products between China and FTA partners.Furthermore,the factors that affect the heterogeneity of different FTAs are analyzed.Finally,according to the empirical results,the relevant conclusions are drawn and policy recommendations are given.The research conclusions show that:(1)The RCA index of China's agricultural products is relatively small,which can strengthen agricultural trade with countries /regions with strong comparative advantages,such as ASEAN,Chile,and Pakistan.China has a high degree of trade integration with most FTA partners,and China's TCD indexes with ASEAN,Chile,and New Zealand are gradually increasing after the FTA is signed;(2)FTA has a trade creation effect on the import and export trade of China's agricultural products.Among them,the promotion effect of FTA strategy on the import of China's agricultural products is about twice that of exports;(3)there is heterogeneous in the trade effect of agricultural products in different FTA partners.In terms of agricultural product imports,all FTAs have a promoting effect on China'sagricultural products,but in terms of exports,the China-Australia and China-Korea free trade agreements do not promote the export of China's agricultural products;(4)for different FTA partners,the differences in the sensitivity of exchange rates and institutional distances affect the changes in trade effects to varying degrees.