The Measurement Of Rural Self-development Ability And The Analysis Of Its Influence Factors

On the basis of combing domestic and foreign literature about the self-development ability of rural areas and relevant theories,this paper analyzes the elements and influence factors of the self-development ability of rural areas.Then construct a matrix index system of rural regional self-development capacity covering three aspects of farmers,agriculture and rural areas,including six aspects,as factor allocation capacity,scientific and technological support capacity,social security capacity,ecological environment bearing capacity,cultural service capacity and grass-roots governance capacity vertically,and use the newly constructed indicators to measure rural regional self-development capacity of the Yellow River Basin.Finally,based on the panel data of nine provinces in the Yellow River Basin from 1998 to2018,this paper empirically analyzes the linear and non-linear relationship between self-development ability of rural areas in the Yellow River Basin from six aspects by semi parametric additive model,the aspects cover natural resources,human resources,rural capital stock,technical level,infrastructure and institutional environment.The researchs conclud that:(1)the change range of farmers’ self-development ability in the Yellow River Basin is not large;the trend of agricultural self-development ability is different,among which Gansu province has slightly improved since 2014,Ningxia province first fluctuated and then rapidly improved,and Shaanxi province and Shanxi province continue to decline.All the other provinces showed a trend of decreasing first and then increasing,but the inflexion time was different.The trend of rural self-development capacity in each province of the Yellow River Basin is almost the same,with 2006 as the turning point,first decreasing and then improving.The overall self-development capacity of rural areas in the Yellow River Basin shows an obvious upward trend,but at the same time,it is phased.(2)Natural resources and infrastructure are important factors affecting the self-development ability of ruralareas in the Yellow River Basin.They not only pass the linear test,but also pass the non-linear test.Among them,the linear part of the influence coefficients are all positive,which shows that they play a role in promoting the self-development ability of rural areas in the Yellow River Basin.The influence of the nonlinear part is a concave shape,and the influence of the initial stage is positive.The level of human resources and technology did not pass the linear test,but passed the non-linear test,indicating that the non-linear part has well described its impact on the self-development ability of rural areas,and the impact of human resources on the self-development ability of rural areas is reflected in the U-shaped.The rural technology level has an S-shaped effect on the self-development ability of rural areas.