Research On The Impact Of The Real Estate Purchase Restriction Policy On Local Government Debt Scale

The real estate purchase restriction policy is a governance measure by the government to control housing prices and stabilize the market,and the implementation of this policy will bring downward economic pressure on local governments: on the one hand,the real estate industry is the top priority of regional economies;on the other hand,land finance is the main source of local fiscal revenue.In this way,it can be considered that the implementation of the purchase restriction policy is likely to affect the local government's financial pressure,debt solvency and other factors,thus affect its debt issuance behavior.In addition,the explosive expansion of the local government debt scale and the irrational development of the real estate market in recent years have attracted the attention of all sectors of society,and "accumulation of local government debt scale" and "adjustment of the real estate market" have become two hot spots in the current society.However,when sorting out the existing literature,it is found that the existing research ignores the various "spillover effects" that may be brought about by the implementation of purchase restrictions,and few scholars have paid attention to the endogenous correlation between market adjustment and local government debt scale.Based on this,this article studies the two hot issues of "purchase restriction adjustment market" and "local debt scale accumulation",in order to clarify the correlation between the purchase restriction policy and the scale of local government debt.The article starts from the realistic background and theoretical background,finds out the hot spots that the society pays attention to,as well as the academic shortcomings about the hot spots,and puts forward the specific issues to be studied;Then,on the basis of summarizing the relevant theories,combing relevant domestic and foreign literature,and analyzing the purchase restriction system and the status of local government debt,a theoretical analysis framework for the effect of the real estate purchase restriction policy on the scale of local government debt was put forward,and the article's research assumptions were proposed.Then,taking 70 large and medium cities as the research object,this paper uses the difference-in-difference model(DID)to analyze the impact of the real estate purchase restriction policy on the scale of local government debt,and examine the intermediary role of the government's situation.And after confirming that the purchase restriction will indeed have an effect on the size of local government debt,the paper uses the multi-linear regression model to further investigate the effects of the three purchase-restriction policy tools,and explores the changes of government debt scale under different purchase-restriction efforts.Based on the empirical results,this article draws the following conclusions:(1)With the control of other conditions unchanged,the implementation of the real estate purchase restriction policy will significantly promote the expansion of local debt scale;(2)The effect of the "two rounds purchase restrictions policy" on the scale of local debt is significantly different;(3)The implementation of the real estate purchase restriction policy will worsen the local government's financial situation to a certain extent,and the deterioration of the financial situation will lead to an increase in the scale of government debt;(4)The government's fiscal gap assumes a part of the intermediary effect in the causal relationship between the real estate purchase restriction policy and the scale of local government debt;(5)The use of purchase restriction policy tools can promote the increase of the scale of government debt,and can effectively enhance the effect of the purchase restriction policy on the scale of local government debt.This paper studies the scale of local debt from the perspective of the real estate purchase restriction policy,which not only makes up for the lack of research on local debt,but also enriches the research literature on purchase restriction policies.In addition,it focuses on the two hot issues of the country and examines the endogenous relationship between the two major risks,which has a positive practical reference role for related departments to "double-pronged" governance of government debt and the real estate market.