Research On The Evaluation Of The Effects Of Agricultural Subsidy Policies

People cannot live without food.According to the report of the 18 th national congress of the communist party of China(CPC),the "three major security" in the world includes food security,and the country attaches great importance to food security because of its unique strategic nature.The increase of food price will cause the chain reaction of other commodity prices,which will cause the violent fluctuation of consumer price level in the whole society.Fluctuations of food market price will not be the only relation to the immediate interests of the producers and consumers.It will directly affect the whole country's economic steady development,and is to maintain the stability of grain prices for society and people's livelihood,the national economy has important significance.This study expatiates on the requirement of food security in the new era,besides quantity and quality,it also pursues higher level of satisfaction,such as personal nutrition and health and ecological sustainable development.The latest data of China's food security ranking as at the end of 2017 is in the middle of the world,and the basic farmland area has a significant impact on the food security of our country.Then respectively from the theory of price elasticity of demand,weak industry support,price fluctuation dynamic research model,providing public goods and the theory of contrast between urban and rural areas coordinated combination to the theory of the five function model to national macroeconomic regulation and control of agriculture and the necessity of fiscal subsidy.The concept of agricultural subsidies was subsequently introduced and classified according to the framework agreement of the world trade organization.By analyzing China and other developed countries,the evolution process of the agricultural subsidy policy,can find the successful experience of other countries and our country the insufficiency and flaw on the institutional policy.Therefore,it has a certain reference and reference significance for the formulation and implementation of relevant agricultural subsidy policies in China by sorting out the successful experience of other countries.At present,the most effective food subsidy policy is the purchase policy of the lowest price,which is one of the "yellow box policies".In combination with a history of nearly ten years' data to introduce the method of principal component analysis for the 13 major grain producing areas to establish evaluation index system model of comprehensive.The accuracy of the model is verified by combining the real sowing area.Then,to test and verify the effect of national implementation of the lowest grain purchase policy,select scheduling front and representative wheat in the north of henan province and the south rice in hunan province for empirical analysis.Through the establishment of minimum grain purchase prices respectively for both the impact of food production and farmers income model,concluded the policy indeed can effectively promote the farmers to plant more and make food production and farmers income get double harvest.Comparison analysis of the lowest price for wheat purchase policy effect is better than that of rice the lowest purchase policy,compared with Hunan province of Henan province is more scale effect so it is affected by the lowest grain purchase policy is more significant.Based on the Support Vector Machine(SVM)model,the forecast interval curve of the minimum purchase price of rice and wheat was obtained.According to wheat production function model of backward if need to implement its planting area increased 5%,need to be the minimum purchase price of wheat prices rise 91.7%,so the policy has the characteristics of diminishing marginal benefit,increasing negative benefit country cannot unlimited increase the minimum purchase price to continue to achieve the goal of grain production and farmers' income.Stage has gradually from agriculture as the foundation of protection in China,the country should learn from developed countries on the policy guidance of agricultural policy development characteristics,increase the use of "green box policy",in turn,ensure the sustainable development of agriculture,to achieve food security.Based on this research,we propose to reconstruct the agricultural product price support policy system during the 13 th five-year plan period.Put forward proposals to reform train of thought to select appropriate price level as a whole the subsidy policy,according to different agricultural products to develop different scheme,the central and local governments together share gradually achieve apply new strategy of a new era in our country.At the same time,countries in addition to using the "yellow box" policy,also should consider,for our country agriculture long-term cooperate to use "green box policies" more strengthen agriculture as the foundation of construction,improve agricultural comprehensive competition strength,fully safeguard food security of our country's multi-level.