An Empirical Study Of China's Total Factor Productivity From The Perspective Of "Structural Deceleration"

Since the reform and opening up,China's economy has maintained a rapid annual growth rate of 9.5%,but since 2007,the economic growth rate has continued to decline.Many scholars have interpreted this phenomenon as a “structural deceleration” based on the “service industry cost disease” theory.In this context,this paper uses the Metafrontier Biennial Weight Modified Russell model(Metafrontier-BWMRM)to make an empirical analysis of the total factor productivity for the one-digit code subsectors of secondary and tertiary industries in30 provinces and two-digit code subsectors in typical Guangdong province in China from 2004 to 2017.The empirical analysis is divided into two parts: the first part conducts an empirical study on the total factor productivity of China's one-code division industry;the second part conducts an empirical study on the total factor productivity of a two-code industry in the typical province of Guangdong.Thus,it is studied whether the “structural deceleration” is suitable for the Chinese economy.The study found that the average value of total factor productivity of the tertiary industry is higher than that of the secondary industry,which indicates that the mainstream view that "structural deceleration" is the cause of the decline in China's economic growth this time is not valid.The service structure of the industrial structure will not reduce the productivity of the whole society.On the contrary,due to the greater heterogeneity within the service industry,although the overall productivity is low,but the productivity of some industries is higher,targeted development of related industries can lead to The development of the national economy promotes the optimization and upgrading of the industrial structure.Through empirical research on various industries under different borders,it is found that the total factor productivity of the secondary industry is negative and the total factor productivity of the tertiary industry is low,which indicates that this round of China 's economic growth The real reason for the rapid decline is that the contribution rate of the total factor productivity of the secondary industry in China 's pillar industries to economic growth hasdeclined,while the growth of the total factor productivity of the tertiary industry has been slow,and has limited impact on the economy.The analysis of the trend of total factor productivity found that in recent years,the growth rates of productivity in various industries have increased,which means that the Chinese economy is changing from "medium-high-speed growth" to "high-quality development".