| As the basic industry and service industry of national economy and social development, logistics industry is the carrier of physical distribution and passenger flow in social economic activity. With the boom of the logistics, the market and the economic development gets more energetic. Thus, logistics industry is regarded as the lubricant and the accelerator of economic development and the government of China increasingly attaches great importance to its influential role. Due to the global warming and the deterioration of ecological environment, the low carbon economic development model with low energy, low pollution and low emission has become the main direction of all countries’ future economic development transition. Since85percent of output value of logistics industry comes from transportation industry, warehousing industry and postal industry, logistics industry is the major force of energy consumption. Especially, the energy consumption structure of logistics industry gives priority to non-regeneration energy and the oil product consumption and gaseous emission are fairly large. So all governments and enterprises both at home and abroad show great concern about the low carbon transformation of logistics and take the low carbon development model as the emphasis of logistics industry development. In the low carbon upgrade of logistics industry, to obtain relative high output and low environmental pollution with low resource, labor and energy input is the basis and safeguard of increasing efficiency and realizing sustainable development of logistics industry and conforms to the demand of low carbon economy.This thesis launches the study from the descriptive, explanatory, confirmatory and exploratory aspects through such analytical methods as econometric analysis, mathematical economics and empirical test based on theory of economic growth, production theory, resource economics and new economic geography. The specific study starts from the practical background of logistics industry and the deficiency of available study and conducts systematic and comprehensive measurement and analysis on the carbon emission of regional and provincial logistics industry of China and the dynamic condition, driving factor and space overflow effect of total factor productivity under the constraint of carbon emission over the years from the new perspective-low carbon emission by adopting the data envelopment analysis based on directional distance function, metafrontier production technology and spatial econometrics analysis. The main content and research conclusions are as follows:(1) This chapter conducts standard measure for the carbon emission of logistics industry first and then conducts systematic study on the distribution, regional difference, polarization degree and driving factor of logistics industry’s carbon emission by means of decoupling index, Gini coefficient and LMDI decomposition technique on a national, regional and provincial scale. The major conclusions include:According to the decoupling analysis on the increase of logistics output value and energy consumption and carbon emission, the decoupling elasticity of national and provincial logistics industry’s carbon emission during the survey displays the W-type change in general and the decoupling status takes on a periodical change from the weak decoupling in not so ideal condition to the expansionary negative decoupling of abnormal state. The-energy decoupling elasticity of carbon emission is higher than that of carbon emission and economic growth and the current carbon emission reduction technology in logistics industry of China fails to make obvious contribution to the carbon emission and industry decoupling. Since the year of2006, the carbon emission decoupling condition in eastern and western China has been obviously better than that in central China and the central China has still been the key area of carbon emission treatment in logistics industry; based on the analysis on the regional difference and polarization degree of carbon emission in logistics industry, the overall regional disparity of China logistics industry’s carbon emission declines within the sample time and slowly increases after2006. The net disparity among regions constitutes the main source of overall disparity although which declines within the sample time. The intensity of transvariation occupies the second place and the disparity in the region ranks last in terms of the contribution to the overall disparity. The outcome of polarization index measure indicates that the polarization degree of China logistics industry’s carbon emission distribution declines. The agglomeration degree in the region and the confrontation degree among regions constantly weaken and eventually becomes the primary reason for the decline of carbon emission polarization degree; based on the analysis on LMDI technique to establish a factors decomposition model of carbon emission per capital in China logistics industry, that economic growth is the most important factor which pull the carbon emission growth of the logistics industry and show the exponential growth trend during this period. The transportation mode also shows a significant role in promoting carbon emissions growth. Although energy structure and energy efficiency show a pulling effect, the effect is weak. While logistics development factor exhibits a significant inhibitory effect on per capita carbon emission scales of the logistics industry.(2) This chapter takes energy, capital and labor as the input factor and the carbon emission as the undesirable output and volume of comprehensive transportation as desirable output to bring them into the evaluation system of productivity and establishes the total factor productivity model under the constraint of carbon emission by taking advantage of the directional distance function based on sequential DEA and Malmquist-Luenberger productivity index. Under the condition of taking the biased error caused by the evaluation of external operation environmental conditions on total factor productivity under control, this thesis evaluates the technical efficiency and total factor efficiency of logistics industry in different provinces of China and comes to the following conclusions. The traditional measure result without taking environmental factor into account tends to underestimate the improvement of technical efficiency and overestimate the technical progress rate of frontier technology and leads to the deviation in total factor productivity measure; the practical total factor productivity increases year by year but the growth is not clear. The imbalance exists in the logistics industry in different regions, to be specific, the rise of total factor productivity index in eastern China roots in the high rate of technical progress while the logistics industry in central and western China universally involves in the insufficient power in technical progress; After eliminating the influence of external environmental factor and random error, the total factor productivity index and corresponding decomposed variables changes, which further verifies that the low pure technical efficiency of leaders’ decision-making and management level is the major cause for restricting the promotion of logistics industry efficiency in most provinces of China; the regions of technical innovation mainly concentrate in Hainan, Tianjin and Shanghai provinces which all belong to economically advanced eastern China; the convergence analysis indicates that the obvious convergent tendency generally exists in whole China and three major regions and the intensity weakens from eastern China to western China and to central China; according to the result of spatial classification pattern, most provinces in China belong to the pattern of low productivity.(3) In order to overcome the problem that the regional logistics industry confronts different technical borders, this chapter employs the nonparametric sequential DEA and metafrontier production function method to analyze the total factor productivity and decomposition of logistics industry in different technical edges by adding carbon emission constraint under the condition of taking the heterogeneity of regional production technology into account; then it analyzes the difference of productivity among regions by measuring technology gap ratio, subsequently applies kernel density estimation to investigating dynamic evolution features of logistics industry’s total factor productivity; finally, it extends to the technical efficiency of logistics industry by estimating whether provinces with relative low technical efficiency are involved with relative high technological catching-up and probes into the influence factors of logistics industry’s total factor productivity on the metafrontier and group frontier as well. According to the empirical findings, the gap exists in the technical efficiency of different groups of logistics industry. The technological level of logistics industry in eastern China ranks first, western China second and central China last. What’s worse, the collapse of soft environment occurs in central China’s logistics industry; eastern China has reached the optimized production technology in China but is relatively sensitive to the change of risk; a big technological gap exists between the central and western region and the eastern region and traditional measure underestimates the power of logistics technology development and the potential of energy conservation and emission reduction in central and western region; the progress of logistics industry’s total factor productivity mainly relies on the pure technical advance rather than the change of pure technical efficiency and scale efficiency and it can concludes that the logistics industry tends to deviate from the production frontier of constant returns to scale through the analysis of technical scale change; during conducting dynamic analysis on the total factor productivity of logistics industry with kernel density estimation, the author found that the differentiation between regions and provinces is relatively obvious, the metafrontier productivity and the group frontier productivity of eastern groups are characterized by a spike while the productivity of central and western groups show the alternate change among unimodality, bimodality and tri-modality; as all provinces strives to approach to technology frontier in terms of the production technology, the catch-up speed of regions with low technological level in logistics may be high; finally, it found that different factors vary in the improvement effect and method of logistics industry’s total factor productivity by studying such seven factors as government expenditure, FDI and infrastructure of transportation, research and development, industrial structure, market requirement and energy structure, so it should implement the differentiation strategy in terms of the different economic and environmental characteristics during improving the regional logistics industry’s total factor productivity and setting the goal of emission reduction in logistics industry.(4) This chapter attempts to conduct study from the perspective of geographical spillover effect, sets up four spatial weight matrix, analyzes the characteristics of spatial distribution of logistics industry’s total factor productivity under the constraint of carbon emission measured according to new economic geography theory, examines the spillover effect of logistics industry’s total factor productivity and inspects the influence of adjacent provinces’energy, traffic and information infrastructure, education level and capability of independent innovation over the local logistics industry’s total factor productivity by adopting the Spatial Durbin Model(SDM) on the condition of the industrial structure and resource endowment being under control. Study results show that the total factor productivity of the provincial logistics industry in China has obvious spatial correlation, and most provinces belong to low-low spatial autocorrelation groups whose productivity level of logistics industry is not high but who are also surrounded by regions with low productivity; SDM model nesting space and time, with the two-way fixed effect, is the most suitable model for conducting spatial analysis of logistics productivity and the spatial spillover effect of logistics productivity realizes external radiation relying on the convenience level of traffic network and the increase of logistics industry’s productivity in the adjoining areas or regions covered by traffic network causes negative overflow on the development of local logistics industry, so obvious spatial competitive effect exists in the logistics productivity; transportation infrastructure and capability of independent innovation improves the local logistics industry’s total factor productivity but produces negative inhibiting effect on the logistics industry of adjoining areas due to the competitive effect; the energy and the information infrastructure have positive effect on the local logistics industry’s total factor productivity; no matter which kind of spatial weight matrix is adopted, the education level of human capital also has obvious influence over the local logistics industry’s total factor productivity and clear overflow effects occur among regions; the facilitation of resource endowment and industrial structure on the local logistics industry’s total factor productivity should not be neglected.Since the formation of the logistics industry in China, it has undergone several stages and been promoted in its infrastructure, operation efficiency, operant level and technological innovation. However, its low carbon upgrade is generally in an extremely primary state, most local governments and logistics enterprises-have not yet conducted low carbon planning and improvement and their awareness of low carbon upgrade is relatively weak. In view of the demand of the low carbon transformation of national economy in the future, it is inevitable for the logistics industry to improve its management mode and realize low carbon logistics and logistics management so as to reduce carbon emission in China. Based on the study of this thesis, the following suggestions on policy are put forward: Firstly, in order to realize the strong decoupling of logistics industry’s carbon emission and economic growth as soon as possible, the input of such clean energy and renewable energy as nuclear power, waterpower, wind force and solar energy and so on should be increased to optimize the structure of energy consumption. Secondly, the development of logistics industry not only should rely on the investment and the matching optimization of resource factors but also should exert the effect of technical factor. The mentioned technology not only includes the practice-based hard technology such as manufacturing technique and production skills but also contains the knowledge-based soft technology like design management, institutional innovation, human capital level improvement and so on. Thirdly, when formulating policy and goal of logistics industry development and carbon emission reduction, the central and local government should take full account of the regional economic development condition and the difference in industrial structure, resource endowment, opening to the outside world, policy orientation, human capital acquisition and implement the differentiation strategy. With respect to central and western regions with relatively low logistical productivity and technical efficiency, the strict carbon emission reduction strategy should be formulated to develop its potential of energy conservation and carbon emission reduction so as to improve its carbon emission reduction ability rapidly in a short time. As for the eastern region with relatively high technical development, the goal of carbon emission reduction can be broadened properly but the internal management of logistics industry in eastern region should be reinforced to enhance its resistance for financial crisis. Fourthly, the network accessibility of logistics industry and the rationality of the mode of transportation should be improved. In the process of the low carbon upgrade of logistics industry, the construction of transport network of high speed railway among small and medium cities should be quickened. Only when the accessibility among regions is promoted substantially and the convenience of interregional transportation and the substitutability of the mode of transportation are enhanced, the logistics industry can eventually reach the advanced level in a real sense on condition of low carbon environment. Fifthly, since infrastructure is characterized by spatial overflow, national and provincial governments should give sufficient consideration to the interactive development among various cities, districts and counties and reasonably allocate the construction of infrastructure, and meanwhile should break away from the constraint of administrative region.
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