Study On The Natural Gas Premium In Northeast Asia:Causes And Elimination Mechanism

Northeast Asia 's natural gas market has some new changes in recent years: Firstly,the bargaining power of importing countries has increased a lot well the exporting country is seeking more channels.Secondly,The level of cooperation between these countries is increasing.In this case,the problem of "Asian premium" is particularly prominent.It not only makes payment costs higher,but the offshore prices of importing countries are high,and it does not correctly reflect the situation of natural gas supply and demand.This article first sorts out the development and evolution of the “Asian premium”in the NEA natural gas market,and then analyzes the markets of the four countries in NEA.On this basis,conducts a vector autoregressive model(VAR)to derive the reason for this phenomenon.Finally,the elimination mechanism is discussed from two aspects: strengthening regional cooperation and pricing mechanism.The main conclusion of this article is that in addition to fundamental factors,link to oil prices is also the reason for premium of the NEA.In addition,the existence of a series of differences among countries in the region is also the reason.For the elimination mechanism,this article proposes to establish comprehensive supporting measures: in terms of pricing mechanism,when the JCC price is higher than 60 US dollars / barrel,choose to link with HH alone,otherwise choose to both link to JCC and HH.At the same time,a regional pricing center should be established;In other aspect,more cooperation should be carried out.