The Evaluation Of China Emission Trading System Based On Capability Maturity Model

As the atmospheric pollution becomes more serious in China,along with the greater pressure on the United Nations Climate Change Conference and the awkward position where the Chinese sellers are placed in the global CER trading,the Chinese government decides to establish the national emission trading system called ETS,which will be open in 2017.There are 7 tested emission trading markets in China in total.How to unify them into the national ETS in limited time is a big challenge to the government and the companies aimed to control the emission of the greenhouse gas.In this paper,an evaluation system of the development of the national ETS is set up.Under the guidance of the Capability Maturity Model,there are three periods along the development of the national ETS.From 2014 to 2016,it’s the preparation period.From 2017 to 2020,it’s called adjustment period.After 2020,the ETS can run under the market mechanism.In every period,Analytic Hierarchy Process(AHP)helps setting up the evaluation system according to the main tasks and targets.Computing the weights for every indicator follows with MATLAB.The indicators are classified into qualitative ones and quantitative ones.The scores for the qualitative indicators are based on the rate that keywords cover.As to the quantitative indicators,there are different formulas.With the help of Exponential Moving Average(EMA),the recent data has bigger weight than the old data which is consistent with the reality.Along evaluating,Cloud Models makes it come true that randomness and fuzziness should be considered at the same time.Examples come after the evaluation system.The national ETS is in the preparation period now.After the evaluation the result shows that the level of the national ETS is low,which means many targets have not been reached which consist of the emissions in total decided by the government,the incentive mechanism for the future controlled discharged companies and so on.Besides,after tested by the evaluation system for the adjustment period,the ETS in Shanghai behaves better compared with the national ETS in the preparation period.All the controlled discharged companies finished clearing their emission in the last 2 years,so smaller volume and amount year by year may be due to too much emissions allocated originally by the government.