Research On Evaluation Of Emergency Rescue Capability Of Civil Transport Airport

The emergency rescue management of a civil transportation airport,as the main place of air transportation,is of great significance to the safe operation of the entire civil transportation airport.It evaluates and improves the capability of emergency rescue so that better response to civil aircraft incidents and accidents can be offered,ensuring the safety of passengers,airlines,and airports.In this paper,an evaluation model of emergency rescue capability of civil transport airport based on cloud model was constructed.The specific contents are as follows:(1)In order to further explore the trend of airport safety,the proportion of unsafe accidents and incidents at airports in my country from 2006 to 2015 was selected as the basic data.The gray GM(1,1)model,the long and short-term memory(LSTM)Neural Network Model,and auto-regressive moving average model(ARMA)were all used one by one for prediction.Considering the impact of a single prediction model on the prediction accuracy and in order to improve it,the induced ordered weighted geometric averaging(IOWGA)was used to ascertain the combined forecasting model of weight coefficient of each single model,which builds the airport security situation combination forecast model.According to the predicted data,the proportion of civil aircraft incidents and accidents caused by the airport has been on the rise from 2016 to 2022,and the airport security was still under great threat.(2)Through the analysis of the relevant concepts and organizational structure of the emergency rescue in a civil transportation airport based on the index selection principle,combined with the SHEL model in the human factors engineering theory,the emergency rescue management of the civil transportation airport was divided into organization management,facilities and equipment,external environment and emergency personnel,and an evaluation index system for the emergency rescue capability of civil transport airports has been constructed.On the basis of mastering the principles of each weighting method,the analytic hierarchy process and entropy weight method were selected to weigh the emergency rescue indicators of civil transportation airports.Due to the limitations of the single weighting method and to make up for its deficiencies,the game theory aiming at nash equilibrium was used to assign weights to a single weighting method,to find the balance between subjective weight and objective weight,and finally to obtain the emergency rescue evaluation index weight of civil transportation airport.(3)After the related evaluation methods and theory have been studied,the cloud model based on probability theory and fuzzy theory was selected for evaluation.The model can combine the fuzziness and randomness of emergency rescue capability evaluation and therefore improve the objective rationality of evaluation results.With the actual situation of emergency rescue capability,a cloud model-based evaluation model of civil transportation airport emergency rescue capability was constructed,and the feasibility of the model was verified by means of a sample airport.Through the analysis of the evaluation results,the main factors that restrict the emergency rescue capability of the airport are transparent,and the countermeasures and suggestions to optimize the airport emergency rescue capability are put forward.