Research On Selection And Quotation Strategy Of Overseas Photovoltaic Project Based On Utility Theory

At present ’one belt,one road’ is being launched to attract overseas markets.Bidding naturally becomes the main battlefield of overseas photovoltaic market competition and it is also the first problem faced by most enterprises.Therefore,the research on bidding strategy has important value.At the same time,there are great risks in the overseas photovoltaic projects.In order to avoid such projects as ’high risk and low income’,the reasonable selection of bidding projects is particularly important.Different from the previous research on bidding strategy,this paper divides the bidding strategy of overseas photovoltaic project into two related parts:project selection and quotation.Through the early selection and quotation strategy of the target project,not only the quality of the target project is guaranteed,but also the opportunity for the enterprise to win the target project is increased,thus creating more economic and social benefits for the photovoltaic related enterprises.In this paper,a large number of literature and practical project data are consulted,and the global photovoltaic project market operation,development mode,risk and pricing mode are summarized and analyzed.This provides a reference for the bidding decision-making of enterprises and also provides data support for the establishment of this paper’s models.Through these analysis,it is pointed out that most of the current bidding decision-making methods tend to subjective evaluation and ignore the objective conditions.And most of the bidding decision-making methods are based on the hypothesis of ’completely rational man’ which is usually unrealistic and easy to cause the deviation of decision-making results.In this paper the utility theory is used which can solve the above problems and is more suitable for overseas photovoltaic project bidding decision.As an important decision-making method for uncertain problems in economics,utility theory has been perfected and matured after a long time of development and has been widely used in many fields.The advantage of applying utility theory innovatively to overseas photovoltaic project selection and bidding decision is that the psychological factors of all parties involved can be fully considered in the bidding decision of the project and the objective conditions can be combined at the same time.In the overseas market where there is no unified standard,information is relatively lacking and full of complex risks,the decision-making results are more comprehensive and accurate than before.At the same time,previous studies assume that the factors that affect each other in the decision-making process are independent,which affects the accuracy of the results.In this paper the DEAMTEL method is used to modify this,effectively improving the results.On the basis of summarizing the advantages and applicable conditions of utility theory,the theoretical models of project selection and quotation strategy were established respectively based on utility function and the genetic algorithm and MATLAB software were used to solve the models.In addition,in the project selection model,the sensitivity of model results to index weight is also tested and the model is further optimized.The empirical analysis shows that the project selection decision-making model can effectively reduce the enterprises risk of selecting overseas photovoltaic projects;the quotation decision-making model provides a theoretical support for enterprises to win the target projects and has certain operability and practical value.However,due to the limitations of the current function fitting methods,it is impossible to fit the S-type utility curve which is also the next research prospect and direction.