| Renewable portfolio standards(RPS)is the top-level system design to realize China’s low-carbon energy transition,and its implementation usually requires a complementary system,that is,the green certificates trading system.The green certificate market is the carrier of scientific implementation of the system,and its purpose is to realize the cost compensation for renewable energy power generation manufacturers through market-oriented methods,thereby improving the efficiency of resource allocation.In the market,the green certificate can be regarded as a financial asset,and its market participants can trade green certificates through their strategic behavior.In the context of China’s plan to implement mandatory green certificate transactions in 2021,it is of practical significance to study the influence of market participants’ strategic behavior on green certificate trading.Based on the above background,this paper studies the impact of the strategic behaviors of two types of market participants,including renewable energy power generation companies and quota obligation entities,on the green certificate trading market.First,the green certificate trading system and the economic attributes of the green certificate market were explained,the market participants involved in the green certificate exchange were sorted out,and the formation and classification of the strategic behavior of the heterogeneous market participants were analyzed.Secondly,based on the static scale-free network,a strategic behavior model of the participants in the green certificate trading market was constructed.Finally,based on the multi-agent modeling method,the influence of market participants’strategic behavior on green certificate trading under multiple scenarios was studied.The results of the research show that:①Renewable energy manufacturers and quota obligation entities are based on different interest demands.When the strategy selection is the same,the quota obligation entity will consider both quota and penalty levels.Therefore,there are opposite situations in the decision-making of the two types of participants.②There is no absolute superiority strategy between value trading strategies,trend following strategies and herd behavior strategies,and each strategy group can achieve stable coexistence,regardless of the group structure in the initial market.But for the subject of quota obligations,the value trading strategy has a comparative advantage.③The trend-following strategy has the greatest influence on the price,and the trend-following strategy of the main body in a disadvantaged position in the market can strengthen the price trend.When the price shows an upward trend,the performance cost of the subject of quota obligations will also increase.The more sensitive it is to changes in the price trend,the more it will promote the price increase;conversely,when prices show a downward trend,the more sensitive renewable energy manufacturers are to changes in price trends,the more prices will be promoted.④The influence of herding behavior strategy on trading depends on the population structure of the quota obligation subject and the degree of herding effect.When the proportion of value trading strategies used in the population is high,the herding effect is conducive to the diffusion of dominant strategies,thereby making the average cost of the entire population lower;but under the condition of a certain population structure,when the degree of herd effect is higher,the average cost of the population is higher. |
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