Evolution Model And Simulation Research On Decision-Making Behavior Of Heterogeneous Subjects In Green Certificate Market

With the continuous promotion of the "dual carbon" target strategy,the importance of actively promoting the optimization of energy structure and accelerating the construction of a new development pattern in the energy market system is constantly highlighted.Therefore,implementing a tradable green certificates system and relying on the renewable energy quota system to carry out mandatory green certificate trading have become important measures to effectively promote the consumption of renewable energy and the optimized allocation of renewable resources nationwide,in response to the demand for the "dual carbon" strategy.The foothold of implementing mandatory green certificate trading is the market subject,and ultimately relies on the decision-making behavior of the market subject to exert market functions and achieve institutional goals.The characteristics of bounded rationality and heterogeneity of green certificate market participants determine the complexity and uncertainty of their decision-making behavior.On the one hand,the decision-making process of heterogeneous market entities is influenced by random disturbances in the external environment,and their decisionmaking behavior under different interest demands will evolve through dynamic interaction with other entities;On the other hand,the decision-making behavior of heterogeneous market entities will evolve through adaptive learning mechanisms based on market dynamics,further leading to differentiation in green certificate efficiency.Therefore,in order to deeply understand the micro decision-making mechanism of market subjects’ decision-making behavior,grasp the correlation between the evolution of decision-making behavior and the green certificate market efficiency,and ultimately provide scientific policy support for mandatory green certificate trading,it is necessary to conduct research around the key issue of the evolution of decision-making behavior of heterogeneous subjects in the green certificate market.Based on the above considerations,this article analyzes the evolution mechanism of decision-making behavior of heterogeneous entities in the green certificate market,constructs decision-making behavior evolution models from different decision-making perspectives,and conducts simulation research on the evolution path and equilibrium of decision-making behavior based on this.The main research work and achievements of this thesis were as follows:(1)A decision-making behavior model of heterogeneous subjects in the green certificate market has been constructed,and the evolution mechanism of decision-making behavior of heterogeneous subjects has been analyzed.Firstly,the bounded rationality and heterogeneous characteristics of the green certificate market subjects were defined.Secondly,the decision-making behavior model of the heterogeneous subjects in the green certificate market was constructed based on the prospect theory,and a mathematical analysis was carried out;Finally,the evolution mechanism of heterogeneous subject decision-making behavior was explained based on the ternary interaction model.The research results show that:①The green certificate market subject is a bounded rational subject with multi-level attributes,and has heterogeneous characteristics in three aspects:heterogeneous preferences,heterogeneous beliefs and heterogeneous learning behaviors.② The preference of quota subjects has heterogeneity in their influence on their decisionmaking behavior.The degree of loss aversion and optimism of the quota subject is positively correlated with the purchase of green certificates,while the impact of the decision-making reference point has a threshold effect.When it is less than the threshold,it is positively correlated with the purchase of green certificates,and vice versa.③ The influence of green power manufacturers’ preferences on their decision-making behavior is heterogeneous.The pricing of green power manufacturers for green certificates increases with the increase of loss aversion,and decreases with the increase of optimism.The influence of the decision reference point has a threshold effect.When it is less than the threshold,it is positively related to the pricing of green certificates.Otherwise,it is negatively correlated.④ The evolution of the decision-making behavior of the green certificate market subject is the result of the interaction among the subject’s heterogeneous characteristics,decision-making behavior and decision-making environment,and has different evolution paths at the micro and macro levels.(2)A decision-making behavior evolution model for heterogeneous market subject in the green certificate market considering random disturbances has been constructed,and simulation research was conducted based on this model.Firstly,an evolutionary game model was used to analyze the evolutionary path of decision-making behavior between quota holders and green power manufacturers.Secondly,a stochastic dynamical system for decision-making behavior evolution was constructed,and the stability of the stochastic evolutionary game system was evaluated.Finally,sensitivity analysis was conducted on the influencing factors of decision-making behavior evolution path and evolution equilibrium through simulation experiments.The research results show that:①In the process of green certificate trading,adopting joint decision-making behavior is a stable strategy in the evolutionary game of decision-making behavior between quota subjects and green power manufacturers.When the game process is subject to external random disturbances,the decision-making behavior evolution paths of both parties in the game fluctuate and eventually tend to a stable state of adopting joint decision-making behavior.②Among the heterogeneous characteristics of market subjects,the loss aversion coefficient has a more significant impact on the evolution path of decisionmaking behavior.When the strength of the reference point effect increases and the loss aversion coefficient increases,the difference in probability distribution of different strategies adopted by both sides of the game expands,and the speed of achieving evolutionary equilibrium of decision-making behavior decreases.③In the payment parameters of the game,the transaction cost coefficient has a more significant impact on the evolution path of decision-making behavior.When the cost coefficient increases.the trust coefficient decreases,and the indirect incentive coefficient decreases,the difference in probability distribution of different strategies adopted by both parties in the game expands,and the speed of achieving evolutionary equilibrium in decision-making behavior decreases.(3)A decision-making behavior evolution model for heterogeneous market subject in the green certificate market considering adaptive learning was constructed,and simulation research was conducted based on this model.First of all,the interaction of market participants was depicted through the scale-free network model,and the trend following behavior model and value trading behavior model of market participants were constructed based on the heterogeneous surrogate model.Secondly,considering two learning models,reinforcement learning and belief learning,a decision-making behavior evolution model for heterogeneous market subjects was constructed.Finally,sensitivity analysis was conducted on the influencing factors of decision-making behavior evolution path and evolution equilibrium through multi-agent simulation experiments.The research results show that:① When market subjects prefer risk,they were more inclined to adopt trend following behavior,while when they prefer conservatism,they were more inclined to adopt value trading behavior.When green power manufacturers prefer conservatism.the price fluctuation of green certificates is smaller.② The evolutionary equilibrium of decision-making behavior of quota subjects depends on the type of decision-making behavior with a higher initial proportion,while the evolutionary equilibrium of decisionmaking behavior of green power manufacturers depends on the type with a lower initial proportion.When the number of entities adopting value trading behavior is dominant,the price fluctuation of green certificates is smaller.③ When market subjects take decisionmaking behavior based on loss and return,their decision-making behavior evolves into value trading behavior.When market entities are based on the prospect value function,the decision-making behavior of quota entities evolves into trend following behavior,while the decision-making behavior of green power manufacturers evolves into value trading behavior.④ When market subjects adopt different learning strategies.there are differences in the evolutionary paths and equilibrium of decision-making behavior between quota entities and green power manufacturers.Among the three learning strategies,when market subjects adopt the EWA learning strategy,the price fluctuation of green certificates is smaller.(4)A multi-agent simulation model was constructed to investigate the impact of heterogeneous agent decision-making behavior evolution on the green certificate market efficiency,and simulation research was conducted based on this model.Firstly.the green certificate market efficiency was defined,and the impact mechanism of heterogeneous subject decision-making behavior evolution on the green certificate market efficiency was analyzed;Secondly,a decision-making behavior model for the storage and borrowing of green certificate market subjects was constructed;Finally,a multi-agent simulation model was constructed to investigate the impact of decision-making behavior evolution on the green certificate market efficiency.Based on this,simulation experiments were conducted to discuss the green certificate market efficiency under different parameter designs,and relevant policy recommendations were proposed.The research results show that:① As the validity period of storage and lending mechanisms increases,the volatility and pricing efficiency of the green certificate market first increase and then decrease,while liquidity first decreases and then increases.The government cannot achieve the dual goal of reducing the volatility of the green certificate market and improving its pricing efficiency by adjusting the validity period.② As the interest rate of lending behavior increases,the volatility of the green certificate market first decreases and then increases,and the liquidity and pricing efficiency first increases and then decreases.By adjusting lending rates,the government can achieve the dual goals of improving market liquidity and pricing efficiency simultaneously.③ As the base of storage and lending mechanisms increases,the volatility of the green certificate market first decreases and then increases,while pricing efficiency first increases and then decreases,while liquidity only decreases in scenarios with a large base.④ On the basis of understanding the market operation and price formation process,the government should establish the green certificate market based on the cultivation,development,and evolution process,and dynamically formulate institutional design plans at different stages according to corresponding policy objectives.The main innovation of this article is to introduce the assumption of heterogeneous subjects into the research of decision-making behavior of green certificate market subjects,comprehensively considering the various heterogeneous characteristics of decision-making entities and the uncertainty of decision-making environment,and exploring the evolution and impact of decision-making behavior of heterogeneous subjects in green certificate market from both micro and macro perspectives.The decision-making behavior evolution model and multi-agent simulation experiments in this paper can not only provide scientific decision-making basis for market participants to participate in green certificate transactions,but also provide quantitative analysis tools and simulation platforms for green certificate market simulation,evaluation and design research.