Research On The Goal And Decision-making Of "Road Transportation To Railway Transportation" In Henan Province

In recent years,economic and social development of Henan province,freight volume remains generally higher level,but since 2010 the railway traffic is presents the downward trend,railway traffic volume in 2019 compared with 2010 fell by nearly a third,and highway traffic continues to remain at around 90%,,Henan has a more unreasonable structure of transport compared to other provinces.In order to reduce transport carbon emissions,and promote the transport of goods structure more reasonable,all levels of government since 2017 has been advancing the "road transportation to railway transportation" work plan of Henan province "road transportation to railway transportation" work involved is wide.Therefore,we should continue to formulate the work target of the 14th Five-Year period,and put forward the corresponding countermeasures.This collection of Henan province’s economic and social transportation aspects of the industry data,the research of the variety of Henan railway transport of the goods freight cargo to aspects of the status quo,through careful study of Henan province revolution of relevant documents,reference in traffic prediction scholars both at home and abroad Ascension,the current status of railway freight volume uses the SWOT analysis "road transportation to railway transportation" work internal advantage of Henan province Weaknesses,external opportunities,the establishment of the SWOT matrix is put forward different development strategy,the goal of working for "road transportation to railway transportation" in Henan province and decision-making to provide the reference;At the same time,using the survey data,combined with the advantages of exponential smoothing method grey forecasting method is proposed combination forecast method based on error correction,predict freight volume of railway transportation in 2025 in Henan province,Henan province was predicted and the total freight and highway traffic,prediction results show that compared with 2019,2025,53 million tons of railway freight volume growth in Henan province,proportion increased 2.95%,the highway freight volume fell by 6.76%;Combined with the different strategies of SWOT matrix and the actual situation of Henan Province,the paper puts forward some measures,such as increasing the traffic volume of special railway line,improving the construction of special railway line,improving the management level of railway operation,improving the control of key enterprises,and controlling the overloading and overloading of highway,which has important reference value for the work of Henan Province’s "road transportation to railway transportation" in the 14th Five-Year Plan period.