Research On LCOE Risk Management Of Onshore Wind Power Project

Under the background of China’s energy transformation and sustainable development optimization,China’s onshore wind power projects have exposed many problems while the cumulative installed capacity is expanding.Onshore wind power project has the characteristics of large investment,long operation cycle and complex technology,which leads to many and complex risk factors in the whole life cycle of the project.Under the action of various risk factors,the actual cost of the project is easily beyond the plan,which aggravates the survival pressure of the project.Therefore,how to scientifically and reasonably evaluate the actual cost risk in the life cycle of onshore wind power projects,put forward effective risk management and control measures,and then improve the project cost risk management system,is of great significance for the sustainable development of onshore wind power projects.On the basis of summarizing the research status of wind power project cost management and risk management,this paper takes the wind power project cost management as the research basis,introduces the life cycle LCOE(levelized cost of electricity)management theory and risk management theory,and changes the simple and extensive cost management mode which used the LCOE as the cost measurement index in the past.Considering the risk factors related to power generation and life cycle cost,the project is divided into decision-making stage,design stage,implementation stage,operation and maintenance stage and scrap treatment stage based on life cycle theory.The risk factors of each stage are preliminarily identified according to the selection principles and ideas of risk factors,After the main risk factors are screened out by coefficient of variation method,the transmission mechanism between these risk factors is qualitatively analyzed by using interpretative structure model,and the regional hierarchy is divided,forming the hierarchical structure diagram of the relationship between the risk factors of LCOE.It shows that the insufficient risk control in the early stage of the whole life cycle of wind power project will lead to the spread and expansion of the risk to the later stage,At the same time,the analysis results show that the risk factors in the implementation stage have strong interaction.The analysis results verify the scientificity and rationality of the risk identification model,sort out the structural relationship between the risk factors,and establish the risk factor index system of LCOE of onshore wind power project.Then,taking the actual project as an example,based on the risk factor index system,this paper uses the group-AHP-vague set risk evaluation model to evaluate the LCOE risk of the actual onshore wind power project,verifies the applicability and scientific rationality of the evaluation model,and concludes that the overall risk level of the LCOE of the project is medium risk.The project in the implementation stage and operation and maintenance stage is in the medium risk and has a trend of higher risk development,which belongs to the stage that needs to pay attention to.In order to further analyze the risk status of the key stages,Monte Carlo simulation is used to analyze the uncertainty of LCOE.Finally,according to the characteristics of risk factors and the risk evaluation results of empirical research,a scientific and reasonable risk optimization and control strategy for the LCOE of onshore wind power projects is proposed.The risk identification and evaluation model of onshore wind power project LCOE constructed in this paper improves the cost risk management theory of onshore wind power project,and puts forward effective risk management and control strategies,which can help scientific and reasonable investment decision-making and cost risk management of onshore wind power project,and further improve the cost-effectiveness of onshore wind power project investment and operation.