Measurement And Structural Decomposition Analysis Of Energy Consumption In Chinese Building Sector

The building sector is one of the three major sectors of China’s energy consumption.With population growth,urbanization development,economic restructuring,and industrial upgrading,building energy consumption has great potential for growth.Therefore,building energy-saving problem is increasingly serious and needs to be further analyzed.This paper compares and analyzes existing buildings energy consumption measurement methods,sorts out relevant statistical indicators,and builds a calculation system for energy consumption of civil buildings in China based on sample datas,then uses decomposition model to analyze the influencing factors of building energy consumption in China from 2009 to 2015.And based on this model,we forecast China’s building energy consumption in 2050.The results are as follows:First of all,in 2015,China civil building energy consumption totaled 819 million tce,which accounted for 19.6% of the end-use energy consumption of the entire society.From2009 to 2015,the energy consumption of China’s civil buildings grew rapidly,with an average annual growth rate of 6.3%,while the total social end-use energy consumption growth rate was only 4.3%.The proportion of building energy consumption has slightly increased in recent years.There is a large difference in energy intensity among different types of buildings.The energy intensity of residential buildings has increased year by year,and the energy intensity of public buildings and central heating has decreased year by year.Secondly,using the LMDI model to analyze the influencing factors of China’s building energy consumption from 2009-2015,we found that from a nationwide perspective,the building area factor is the main factor affecting the growth of China’s civil building energy consumption,followed by the economic development factor.The factors of urbanization and population have a positive driving effect on the increase of building energy consumption,but the impact is small.The industrial structure has a very small positive effect on the growth of building energy consumption,but its growth is rapid and can not be ignored.Building energy efficiency has a significant negative effect on the growth of building energy consumption.From a regional point of view,unlike other economic regions,the transfer of labor force makes the positive effect of the population size on building energy consumption greater than that of the population structure in eastern.Therefore,it is suggested to increase the development of the central and western cities and reduce the loss of local population.From the perspective of different building types,the main influencing factors of energy consumption of different building types are obviously different.Building energy efficiency factor has a positive effect on the residential building energy consumption,but it has a negative effect on public buildings and central heating energy consumption.The positive effect of building area factor on rural residential building energy consumption is obviously greater than that of urban residential building energy consumption.Therefore,the government should increase the publicity of residential building energy conservation,supplemented by economic incentives to reduce the rebound effect;and accelerate building energy conservation in rural areas and formulate reasonable standards for rural building area.Based on the LMDI model,we forecast China’s building energy consumption.The results show that in 2050,the energy consumption of China’s civil buildings is between 854-1118 million tce.If the mode of economic and social development is controlled well,building energy consumption will probably peak around 2040.