Influencing Factors Decomposition And Prediction Of Energy Consumption In Liaoning Province Based On LMDI

Liaoning Province,as an old industrial base in the northeast,has accumulated a large amount of industrial capital for modernization in the initial period of reform and opening up.However,the extensive development mode has not been able to adapt to the international and domestic development environment.At the same time,problems such as backward technology and depletion of resources have also become the key factors restricting the development of Liaoning Province.In recent years,the economic development in Liaoning Province has experienced a weak phenomenon.The total economic output dropped from the second in the country in 1978 to the tenth in 2015.In 2015,the GDP growth rate was only 0.15% over the previous year.Therefore,accelerating the transformation of the economic development model,taking the low-carbon development path,and achieving sustainable development are of great significance to Liaoning Province.This research aims to analyze the current situation of energy consumption in Liaoning Province,identify the main factors affecting changes in energy consumption,and conduct scenario analysis and forecast of energy consumption in Liaoning Province in the middle and long term.The conclusions will provide references for Liaoning Province to formulated middle and long term energy planning and related industrial policies.This research first uses the two indicators of developing coefficient of industrial structure and evolution coefficient of energy consumption structure to analyze qualitative and quantitative aspects of Liaoning's economy and energy consumption.At the same time,it compares and analyzes Liaoning Province and the whole country and explores the energy consumption characteristics of Liaoning Province.The results show that Liaoning Province began to transition to the late stage of industrialization after experiencing a long period of industrialization.Although the industrial structure presents the "three-two-one" feature,it still has more room for optimization than the industrial structure of China's developed regions(Beijing,Shanghai,etc.);In terms of energy consumption structure,the energy structure of Liaoning Province and even the whole country is too monotonous.Liaoning's coal and oil consumption accounted for only 90% of the time.Secondly,this research uses LMDI method to analyze the driving factors of the change of terminal energy consumption in Liaoning Province from 1997 to 2015,and finds that the per capita GDP and energy consumption intensity are the most important factors affecting the changes in energy consumption in Liaoning Province,but the direction of action is different,the former is to promote,the role of the latter is the inhibitory effect;the total population at the end of the year,per capita energy consumption,urbanization rate have a small role in promoting the growth of energy consumption,industrial structure changes inhibit the growth of energy consumption;the energy consumption structure has little effect on the change of energy consumptionFinally,based on the LMDI method,this research constructs a scenario analysis and forecasting model for end-use energy consumption in Liaoning Province.Based on the possible developments in the future,three development models: baseline scenario,upper limit scenario,and lower limit scenario are set up,and the total population and per capita at the end of the year GDP,industrial structure,energy intensity,urbanization rate,per capita energy consumption and other factors are used to set scenarios.Then,according to the model,terminal energy consumption in different development modes of Liaoning Province in 2020 and 2030 is predicted.